SPC AC 250522

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1222 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

   Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
   OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from late this afternoon
   into tonight across parts of the central and southern Great Plains.
   Very large hail, severe wind gusts, and a couple strong tornadoes
   will all be possible.

   ...Great Plains...

   Water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined short-wave trough off the
   southern CA/Baja Peninsula Coast. 70+kt 500mb speed max is forecast
   to translate across the northern Gulf of CA early in the period
   before advancing into the southern high Plains at 26/00z, and
   central KS by sunrise Friday. In response to this feature, lee
   surface low will reposition itself into eastern CO by late
   afternoon.  While LLJ won't be particularly strong through 26/00z,
   boundary layer will moisten significantly across the central High
   Plains into northeast CO prior to the approaching jet. Surface
   temperatures will warm rapidly across eastern CO such that
   convective temperatures will be breached by 21z, favorably timed
   with the left exit region of the jet. 60F surface dew points have
   spread into the northeast TX Panhandle early this morning, and
   should advance into northwest KS prior to expected supercell
   initiation. Model forecast soundings exhibit favorable
   shear/buoyancy for organized rotating updrafts and the dry line will
   be the primary focus for initiation. Very large hail is expected
   with this activity along with tornadoes, a few potentially strong.
   LLJ will strengthen along the I35 corridor from north TX into NE
   during the overnight hours. There will be some propensity for the
   western KS convection to spread/develop downstream as low-level warm
   advection increases during the latter half of the period.

   Farther south along the dry line, it appears a secondary, bimodal
   corridor of convection will evolve over west/northwest TX during the
   late-evening hours. Deep convection may initially struggle to evolve
   along the dry line as some inhibition should linger beyond sunset.
   However, large-scale height falls will influence this region by late
   evening and profiles will adjust. Thunderstorms are expected to
   develop shortly thereafter with initial activity being supercellular
   in nature. With time, upscale growth may lead to an MCS-type cluster
   that should track northeast across the southern Plains. Very large
   hail is possible with the early development, but a transition to
   more wind could occur late. Additionally, some tornado risk will
   continue overnight despite lifted parcels likely becoming somewhat
   elevated.

   ..Darrow/Weinman.. 04/25/2024

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