Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
SPC AC 221611
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1111 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024
Valid 221630Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTH
FLORIDA...
...SUMMARY...
Strong to locally severe thunderstorms, capable of marginally severe
wind gusts and hail, will be possible near the southeast Florida
coast this afternoon.
...South FL...
Visible satellite imagery shows a swelling cumulus field over the
Everglades and South FL ahead of a southward-progressing cold front
over the northern part of the Everglades. A mid-level shortwave
trough located over the Carolinas/northeast Gulf of Mexico
--embedded within a larger-scale eastern North America trough-- will
continue east into the western Atlantic through the evening.
Continued warming of a moist airmass across south FL will yield
moderate destabilization. Isolated thunderstorms are forecast to
develop in the vicinity of the front through the mid afternoon.
Long, straight hodographs combined with more than adequate CAPE will
potentially yield a couple of organized storms. An isolated risk
for large hail and/or localized damaging gust will be the primary
hazards with the most intense storms. This activity will push east
of the coast by early evening.
Elsewhere, quiescent conditions will prevail across a large part of
the contiguous United States.
..Smith/Moore.. 04/22/2024
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
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