SPC AC 211245

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0745 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

   Valid 211300Z - 221200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
   AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS NORTH FL/SOUTH GA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated damaging winds near 60 mph and large hail near 1 inch
   diameter will be possible for a few hours this afternoon/evening
   across south Georgia and north Florida.

   ...North FL/south GA this afternoon/evening...
   A low amplitude shortwave trough over the north central Gulf coast
   will progress eastward over south GA/north FL by late afternoon, in
   advance of an upstream trough over the mid MS Valley.  An associated
   cold front will move slowly southeastward and offshore of the
   Carolinas this afternoon, and into central FL by Monday morning. 
   Regional 12z soundings from JAX/TLH show lingering steep midlevel
   lapse rates and an associated cap which is expected to weaken from
   the west by afternoon, when thunderstorm development will become
   more probable with surface heating, ascent along the front, and with
   larger-scale ascent related to the approaching midlevel trough.  The
   warm sector ahead of the front across south GA/north FL will be
   characterized by mid 60s dewpoints and surface temperatures ranging
   from the mid 70s to lower 80s in cloud breaks by afternoon, where
   MLCAPE could approach 1000 J/kg.  Coincident with diurnal
   destabilization, midlevel flow will increase to 50 kt with largely
   straight hodographs and effective bulk shear of 35-40 kt.  This
   environment of moderate buoyancy and vertical shear will support the
   potential for multicell clusters and/or low-end supercells capable
   of producing isolated damaging gusts near 60 mph and large hail near
   1 inch in diameter for a few hours this afternoon/evening.

   ..Thompson/Kerr.. 04/21/2024

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