Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE
39,004
464,520
Grand Island, NE...Kearney, NE...Dodge City, KS...Hastings, NE...Hays, KS...
10 %
39,485
467,073
Grand Island, NE...Kearney, NE...Dodge City, KS...Hastings, NE...Hays, KS...
5 %
142,251
5,754,104
Oklahoma City, OK...Omaha, NE...Wichita, KS...Lincoln, NE...Topeka, KS...
2 %
101,322
9,559,135
Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Kansas City, MO...Tulsa, OK...Arlington, TX...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
136,722
7,280,002
Virginia Beach, VA...Norfolk, VA...Chesapeake, VA...Richmond, VA...Newport News, VA...
5 %
431,186
39,370,361
Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Baltimore, MD...Washington, DC...Oklahoma City, OK...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE
158,154
3,822,426
Omaha, NE...Wichita, KS...Lincoln, NE...Abilene, TX...Wichita Falls, TX...
30 %
81,750
1,619,041
Lincoln, NE...Salina, KS...Manhattan, KS...Grand Island, NE...Hutchinson, KS...
15 %
210,395
14,527,849
Oklahoma City, OK...Kansas City, MO...Virginia Beach, VA...Omaha, NE...Tulsa, OK...
SPC AC 151245
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0745 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024
Valid 151300Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely across parts of the Great
Plains, beginning mainly this evening and continuing overnight.
Several tornadoes, large to very large hail, and damaging wind gusts
all appear possible. Strong tornadoes may occur this evening across
parts of Kansas and Nebraska.
...Synopsis...
A large, closed upper cyclone is present over the Great Basin this
morning. This feature will track eastward across the central
Rockies, eventually ejecting over the southern/central Plains
tonight. A strong mid/upper-level jet attendant to this upper
cyclone will overspread much of the southern/central Plains through
this evening. Pronounced large-scale ascent preceding the
upper-level trough/low will encourage additional deepening of a
surface low over the central High Plains though the day. Moisture
will continue streaming northward through the period in tandem with
a warm front and persistent low-level warm/moist advection. This
warm front should be located across NE and perhaps into far southern
SD by late this evening, as the primary surface low consolidates
over the NE Panhandle. A dryline is forecast to mix eastward across
the southern/central High Plains through peak afternoon heating,
before retreating westward this evening across parts of the TX/OK
Panhandles and western KS.
...Northern/Central Plains (Kansas/Nebraska/South Dakota)...
A cap and the late timing of large-scale ascent associated with the
ejecting upper cyclone will likely inhibit convective development
across the northern/central Plains through at least late afternoon.
Still, low-level moisture will gradually increase through the day,
with surface dewpoints of at least upper 50s to low 60s becoming
common by early this evening across the warm sector. Steep mid-level
lapse rates and cooling thermal profiles aloft are expected to
contribute to substantial MLCAPE by the peak of the diurnal heating
cycle, with values likely ranging around 2000-3000 J/kg. With
gradually strengthening mid/upper-level flow anticipated, deep-layer
shear should also become sufficiently strong to support a mix of
supercells and multicells across this region.
Convective initiation should be delayed across much of KS/NE/SD
until around 00Z as a southerly low-level jet rapidly strengthens to
50-60 kt. Very large hail (around 2-3 inches in diameter) will be a
threat with any supercells that can form along/near the warm front,
or southward along the length of the dryline into western KS.
Low-level hodographs are forecast to become enlarged/curved in the
00-06Z time frame tonight, and the threat for tornadoes is likewise
expected to increase with any supercells that can persist and remain
at least semi-discrete. Confidence has increased in a more
concentrated corridor of tornado potential across parts of
western/central KS into central NE, where supercells appear most
likely in very favorable thermodynamic and kinematic parameter
space. Given the forecast strength of the low-level shear, strong
tornadoes appear possible this evening/tonight across this area.
Severe/damaging winds will also be possible as convection attempts
to grow upscale into one or more clusters overnight. Even with
nocturnal cooling, these severe/damaging winds may persist given the
ample reservoir of buoyancy available.
...Southern Plains (Oklahoma/Texas)...
The overall coverage and severity of convection across the southern
Plains is somewhat more uncertain compared to locations farther
north across the central Plains. This uncertainty is largely tied to
the influence of a sub-tropical mid/upper-level jet that will move
over the southern Plains through the period, along with associated
mid/upper-level cloudiness. These clouds may tend to limit daytime
heating to some extent along the length of the dryline. Even so,
attempts at robust convective development will probably occur across
parts of northwest TX by late this afternoon. If this activity can
be sustained, then supercells appear likely given ample (50-60 kt)
deep-layer shear. Isolated large to very large hail will probably be
the main threat with this convection as it moves towards
north-central TX. But, occasional severe/damaging winds and perhaps
a couple of tornadoes may also occur through the early evening. Most
guidance indicates any supercells which develop will weaken with
eastward extent as they encounter increasing MLCIN, and become
increasingly displaced from the better large-scale ascent with the
upper trough/low ejecting over the central Plains. A highly
conditional severe threat remains apparent across OK late this
afternoon and evening, with a favorable parameter space to support
supercells capable of producing all severe hazards. But, much of OK
may have a relative minimum in convective activity until late
tonight as a Pacific cold front overtakes the dryline.
...Mid-Atlantic to the Mid Mississippi Valley...
The glancing influence and modest ascent with an upper trough across
the Northeast and eastern Canada will overspread parts of the
Mid-Atlantic by early afternoon. Weak low-level convergence along a
sagging cold front should be sufficient to support isolated to
scattered thunderstorm development through the afternoon and evening
from parts of the mid MS Valley into the OH Valley, central
Appalachians, and southern Mid-Atlantic. Ahead of the front across
the Mid-Atlantic, generally low 50s surface dewpoints and steepened
mid-level lapse rates will foster around 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE
with moderately enhanced westerly mid/upper-level flow. Deep-layer
shear across this region appears strong enough to support supercells
with an associated threat for large hail. Damaging wind gusts may
also occur with multicell clusters that attempt to form as they
track generally east-southeastward through the evening hours. With
weaker deep-layer shear across the mid MS and OH Valleys, convection
should be somewhat less organized while still posing an isolated
threat for hail/wind. The overall severe threat should gradually
diminish through late evening with the loss of diurnal heating.
..Gleason/Grams.. 04/15/2024
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