Denver, CO...Colorado Springs, CO...Aurora, CO...Lubbock, TX...Amarillo, TX...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
261,760
5,925,450
Denver, CO...Colorado Springs, CO...Aurora, CO...Lubbock, TX...Amarillo, TX...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
261,074
5,811,111
Denver, CO...Colorado Springs, CO...Aurora, CO...Lubbock, TX...Amarillo, TX...
SPC AC 250452
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1152 PM CDT Wed May 24 2023
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INCLUDING FAR SOUTHWEST TEXAS...AND OVER MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN MONTANA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered storms, some producing severe hail and wind gusts, will be
possible this afternoon and evening from eastern Montana southward
into western Texas and eastern New Mexico.
...Synopsis...
An upper ridge will remain situated from the southern Plains into
the upper MS Valley, with a building anticyclone aloft over MN/WI.
Meanwhile, an upper trough will remain over the West, centered over
NV, with low heights over parts of the Southeast and Mid Atlantic.
At the surface, high pressure will be centered over the Great Lakes,
with easterly winds along the Gulf Coast. A plume of 60s F dewpoints
will stretch northwestward into eastern NM and west TX, with mid to
upper 60s F over southern TX. To the north, a surface trough with
wind shift will remain nearly stationary over eastern MT, with mid
50s F dewpoints there.
...Central and Eastern MT...
Heating will occur near a surface trough today, steepening
deep-layer lapse rates with cool midlevel temperatures aloft.
Dewpoints will likely be in the mid 50s F, aided by
evapotranspiration related to precipitation from the previous day.
Forecast soundings show around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE by late afternoon,
within a weak shear environment. The surface trough will provide a
focus for scattered afternoon storms, some producing marginal hail
or locally strong wind gusts as they propagate northeastward into
western ND. In addition, a subtle upper wave moving out of western
WY and into MT may aid storm formation with associated midlevel
moistening.
Farther west, other afternoon storms are likely over central MT,
aided by heating of the higher terrain. Here, midlevel temperatures
will be colder, resulting in around 1000 J/kg MUCAPE despite lower
dewpoints. Shear will be weak as well, but locally gusty winds or
marginal hail may occur.
...Eastern CO into western TX...
The stabilizing effects from lingering storms over the South Plains
will likely inhibit destabilization today, with little help from
weak 850 mb winds around 15 kt. Indications are that scattered
storms will form very late in the afternoon, from the Front Range
into northeast NM, and over Far West TX.
Midlevel westerlies around 25 kt appear likely from NM into west TX
during the afternoon, with stronger winds to 50 kt at 300 mb. The
strongest instability may develop over southwest TX where 55-60 F
dewpoints will be maintained with easterly surface winds. Large hail
will be the primary concern, with hodographs favoring splitting
cells.
..Jewell/Thornton.. 05/25/2023
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