Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
76,734
3,461,242
Kansas City, MO...Omaha, NE...Overland Park, KS...Kansas City, KS...Topeka, KS...
5 %
198,588
6,785,150
Lincoln, NE...Des Moines, IA...Springfield, MO...Sioux Falls, SD...Billings, MT...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE
18,016
1,825,666
Kansas City, MO...Overland Park, KS...Kansas City, KS...Independence, MO...St. Joseph, MO...
15 %
82,996
4,302,150
Kansas City, MO...Omaha, NE...Lincoln, NE...Overland Park, KS...Kansas City, KS...
5 %
188,916
5,886,134
Des Moines, IA...Springfield, MO...Sioux Falls, SD...Billings, MT...Columbia, MO...
SPC AC 111330
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0830 AM CDT Sat Jun 11 2022
Valid 111300Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS STATES...
CORRECTED HAIL PROBABILITY GRAPHIC
...SUMMARY...
A few clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms may develop from
the northern Rockies into the middle and lower Missouri Valley
Saturday into Saturday night. Damaging winds and hail will be most
likely. An isolated tornado is possible over the middle Missouri
Valley and vicinity.
...IA/NE/MO/KS...
A broad upper ridge is centered over the four-corners region today,
with the belt of stronger westerlies extending from the northern
Rockies into the upper Midwest. A cold front currently over the
Dakotas will sag southeastward into eastern NE and northern IA by
mid-afternoon, where a very warm and humid air mass will be present.
Afternoon MLCAPE values over 2500 J/kg are expected, resulting in
scattered thunderstorm development along/ahead of the front.
Activity will track southward into western MO and eastern KS during
the evening before weakening after dark. Initial storms over NE/IA
will likely be supercellular with concerns for very large hail and
perhaps a tornado or two. As the storms track southward, upscale
organization into a bowing MCS is expected with an increasing risk
of wind damage.
...MT/SD...
Strong westerly flow aloft will overlay the northern Plains today,
while a weak cold front sags southward across MT. Pockets of
daytime heating will lead to afternoon temperatures well into the
80s from southern MT into SD, with dewpoints in the upper 40s and
50s. Model guidance is in agreement that scattered thunderstorms
will form over the mountains of western MT and develop/move eastward
along the front during the afternoon/evening. Forecast soundings
suggest only marginal CAPE will develop, but given the strong winds
aloft and considerable vertical shear, a few supercell storms are
expected capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. These
storms may be rather isolated, but may persist much of the evening
and track quickly eastward into western/central SD.
..Hart.. 06/11/2022
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
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