SPC AC 311237

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0737 AM CDT Tue May 31 2022

   Valid 311300Z - 011200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST TX
   PANHANDLE TO SOUTHEAST KS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   The most likely corridor for scattered severe thunderstorms during
   the late afternoon and evening will be from the southeast Texas
   Panhandle across western and northern Oklahoma into southeast
   Kansas. A couple tornadoes, significant severe wind gusts, and very
   large hail are all possible.

   ...Northwest TX to southeast KS...
   A slowly southward-sinking surface cold front will become
   quasi-stationary and should be draped from southeast KS to the
   southeast TX Panhandle by this afternoon. The dryline will extend
   southwest and south from this frontal zone, struggling to mix east
   of Far West TX. Surface temperatures will warm well through the 90s
   across southwest OK and west TX in the warm/moist sector ahead of
   the dryline and front. Late afternoon scattered thunderstorm
   development is likely along both the front and dryline. 

   While strong mid-level southwesterlies will be centered from
   southeast CO to eastern NE, the southern influence of this jet will
   yield favorable deep-layer shear with effective values around 35-45
   kts. However, mid to upper-level winds will largely parallel the
   surface front, suggesting that upscale growth into multiple clusters
   which amalgamate into a broader MCS appears plausible. Some guidance
   such as the 00Z HRW-ARW and HRW-NSSL indicate potential for a
   forward-propagating MCS especially with convection off the dryline
   merging with frontal convection near the southeast TX
   Panhandle/southwest OK vicinity. Still, 09Z RAP/06Z NAM guidance
   suggest 850-mb negative theta-e advection this evening which would
   likely curtail a more widespread severe wind event and yield a
   decaying MCS tonight. 

   ...MO to Lower MI...
   Ongoing convection from eastern KS into northern MO within a
   low-level warm conveyor will likely persist through at least midday
   and may not entirely decay this afternoon. The effects of this
   early-day convection on the degree of downstream destabilization
   renders below-average confidence in more specific convective
   evolution during the afternoon and evening. Will maintain a broad
   cat 2-SLGT risk as areas undisturbed by early-day convection will
   warm through the 80s and should yield at least a moderately unstable
   air mass. 50-65 mph wind gusts, large hail, and a tornado or two all
   appear plausible.

   ...Southwest New England vicinity...
   Confidence in sustained convective development is low, but a
   conditionally favorable corridor exists for a few severe
   thunderstorms along a backdoor cold front. If isolated thunderstorms
   can develop, a threat for marginally severe hail and localized
   damaging wind gusts may become realized. 

   ...Central to eastern Gulf Coast...
   Much of the region will lie within very weak effective shear around
   10-15 kts. This suggests that organized severe thunderstorms are
   highly unlikely, although pulse storms along sea breezes might
   produce locally strong gusts in wet microbursts and small hail.

   ..Grams/Mosier.. 05/31/2022

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