Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
220,929
12,235,413
Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...
SPC AC 170525
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1225 AM CDT Mon May 17 2021
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHWEST TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are forecast across portions of the southern
Plains later this afternoon and overnight. Very large hail and a few
tornadoes will be concentrated across northwest Texas.
...Southern Plains...
Well-defined upper low is currently located over the lower CO River
Valley. This feature is forecast to eject into the southern Rockies
by 18/00z as 50kt 500mb flow translates across the northern Baja
Peninsula into portions of northwestern TX by late evening. In
response, lee surface low should hold across southeastern NM which
will ensure moist southeasterly low-level flow is maintained across
the TX South Plains into far northeastern NM. Additionally, a weak
MCS has evolved over northwest TX early this morning with
considerable amount of trailing precipitation extending across the
TX Panhandle into western KS. The leading edge of this complex
should propagate slowly southeast through daybreak, likely spreading
into portions of central TX by sunrise. This rain-cooled air mass
should contribute to easterly low-level component across the TX
South Plains and a remnant convective boundary may be evident in its
wake over northwestern TX. If so, this boundary should serve as a
primary corridor for focused hail-producing supercells.
Latest thinking is intense surface heating will be noted across far
west TX into southeast NM such that convective temperatures will be
breached by 21z. Forecast sounding at MAF by 22z exhibits a 90F
surface temperature with negligible CINH. It appears thunderstorms
should develop along the dryline near the NM border, south across
west TX, then spread/develop northeast along a potential rain-cooled
boundary. Very steep lapse rates through a deep layer, extreme
MLCAPE, and ample shear for slow-moving supercells all favor very
large hail. As mid-level flow increases during the evening, there is
reasonable confidence that numerous hail-producing supercells could
emerge into an MCS that will propagate toward north-central TX.
Prior to this, some tornado threat will be noted both early in the
convective cycle, and along the aforementioned rain-cooled boundary
where shear will be maximized.
..Darrow/Karstens.. 05/17/2021
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
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