SPC AC 080540

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1240 AM CDT Sat May 08 2021

   Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
   PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered severe storms are expected across parts of the central
   Plains. Some of these storms will pose a risk for very large hail,
   damaging winds, and perhaps a few tornadoes.

   ...Central Plains...

   Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a notable mid-level
   short-wave trough approaching the lower CO River Valley. This
   feature is forecast to eject across the southern Rockies this
   afternoon, then into the central Plains during the evening. In
   response, focused lee trough/dry line will establish itself across
   the TX/OK Panhandle region where very strong boundary-layer heating
   and steep low-level lapse rates will develop this afternoon.
   Forecast soundings along the dry line suggest surface temperatures
   will soar into the mid 90s across the eastern TX Panhandle with near
   90F possible into southwestern KS. As a result, convective
   temperatures will be breached by 22z and isolated thunderstorms
   should develop near DDC vicinity, then spread/develop northeast
   ahead of the surface low, along/ahead of an advancing cold front.
   Forecast shear strongly supports supercells and very large hail
   appears possible with this activity. As these storms spread
   northeast, more moist low-level environment would seem to support
   some potential for tornadoes...especially if storms are not undercut
   by the advancing cold front. Earlier thoughts regarding the tornado
   potential across this region remain focused across portions of
   central/north-central KS along the northern edge of strongest
   boundary-layer warming. Upscale growth into an MCS is possible
   during the evening across northeast KS and this complex should
   propagate toward central MO, aided by an increasing LLJ into this
   region after sunset.

   It's not entirely clear how many storms, if any, will form south
   along the dry line, especially south of I-40 despite the intense
   surface heating. However, isolated supercells are expected to
   develop across eastern CO as the cold front surges south during the
   evening. These storms should spread southeast toward southwest KS/OK
   Panhandle with an attendant threat for mainly hail/wind.

   ..Darrow/Dean.. 05/08/2021

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