Houston, TX...San Antonio, TX...Austin, TX...Memphis, TN...Oklahoma City, OK...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
45 %
31,654
1,927,462
Shreveport, LA...Little Rock, AR...Longview, TX...Bossier City, LA...North Little Rock, AR...
SPC AC 181626
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1126 AM CDT Sat May 18 2019
Valid 181630Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
TEXAS INTO MUCH OF ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA - AND OVER PARTS
OF NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS....
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are expected from Texas to Iowa, with the greatest
across parts of the southern Plains into Arkansas and Louisiana.
Widespread damaging winds and a few tornadoes are expected.
...Central TX into AR...
A large linear MCS has developed this morning, extending from
southeast KS southward into northern and central TX. The line of
storms is moving into a strongly sheared and moderately unstable air
mass, where surface dewpoints are currently in the mid 60s to lower
70s, and effective helicity values are 200-300 m2/s2. Locally
damaging winds are expected to accompany the line as it moves
eastward, along with transient QLCS tornado circulations. The
potential for discrete supercell development ahead of the line will
increase this afternoon as daytime heating helps to destabilize the
region ahead of the squall line. This severe threat will persist
through the day and into the evening as the storms track into much
of AR and northwest LA.
...Northwest OK and south-central KS...
The expansive cloud shield associated with the OK/TX MCS will move
eastward, allowing a few hours of heating to occur over northwest OK
and south-central KS. Ample low-level moisture should return to
this region, with a pocket of strong instability forecast to
develop. A consensus of 12z CAM guidance shows a few discrete
supercells forming over this area late this afternoon. While the
risk area is rather small, strong deep-layer shear profiles and
steep midlevel lapse rates suggest a significant risk of large hail
with this activity. Very large hail is possible. Therefore have
added an ENH risk and increased the hail probabilities for this
region.
..Hart/Karstens.. 05/18/2019
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
| 
)
