SPC AC 050826

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0226 AM CST Sun Feb 05 2017

   Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID
   MISSISSIPPI/OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND VICINITY...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
   SLIGHT RISK AREA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Showers and scattered thunderstorms are forecast to affect the mid
   Mississippi, Ohio, and Tennessee Valley areas, and later spreading
   eastward across the Appalachians.  Isolated strong/locally severe
   storms will be possible mainly west of the mountains.

   ...Synopsis...
   Progression of low-amplitude upper short-wave troughing across the
   eastern half of the country is expected Day 3, with an associated
   surface low forecast to deepen gradually as it shifts northeastward
   from the IL/IN vicinity early, across the Great Lakes and eventually
   to the Ottawa River Valley area late.  As the low progresses, a
   trailing cold front will shift east across the Midwest and
   eventually the Appalachians, and southeast into the central Gulf
   coastal states by the end of the period.  Showers and scattered
   thunderstorms will accompany this storm system.

   ...Mid MS/OH/TN Valleys and vicinity...
   A complex scenario remains evident for Day 3/Tuesday, with model
   differences still evident and corresponding low confidence with
   respect to forecast details of convective mode/intensity/evolution
   ahead of the advancing cold front.

   Showers and scattered storms (and possibly local/low-end severe
   risk) should be ongoing at the start of the period, and should
   continue through the day in many areas.  This suggests that
   potential for diurnal destabilization will be limited across much of
   the region.  Still, advance of the upper system and associated
   surface cold front should support some potential for intensification
   of storms during the afternoon, aided by favorably strong flow
   aloft.  Greatest severe risk at this time -- largely in the form of
   gusty/damaging winds -- appears likely to exist from the mid Ohio
   Valley southward across the Tennessee Valley.  Threat should
   diminish during the evening across northern parts of the risk area
   as storms cross the Ohio Valley.  Convection -- and some severe risk
   -- may linger farther south, as the front settles southward into the
   central Gulf Coast States overnight.

   ..Goss.. 02/05/2017

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z