SPC AC 050637

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1237 AM CST Sun Mar 05 2017

   Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OZARKS
   AND VICINITY...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
   THE UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
   EXTREME NORTHEAST TEXAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few severe storms will be possible from Monday evening through
   early Tuesday morning from parts of the upper and middle Mississippi
   Valley southwestward to the Ozarks.

   ...Synopsis...
   General synoptic evolution remains consistent in model forecasts, as
   a deep/cold midlevel trough just off the Pacific Northwest coast
   progresses inland to the central/northern Plains by Monday evening,
   and the upper MS Valley and upper Great Lakes by early Tuesday. 
   Associated surface cyclogenesis is expected from the northern Plains
   to western Ontario, and a trailing cold front will move
   southeastward across the central/southern Plains and MS Valley by
   the end of the period.  The primary focus for strong/severe storm
   development will be along and immediately in advance of the cold
   front.

   ...Upper/mid MS Valley to the Ozarks Monday evening/overnight...
   Some minor differences persist with the eastward movement of the
   cold front, related to the translation of the ejecting speed max
   aloft, with the GFS still a bit faster (as is somewhat typical), and
   the ECMWF/NAM a bit slower.  The more important differences center
   on the magnitude of low-level moistening and surface heating within
   the moist sector Monday, with the NAM remaining more aggressive with
   destabilization compared to other model forecasts.  However, the
   general scenario remains consistent with storm development expected
   along the cold front late Monday from southern MN/IA into northwest
   MO and northeast KS, where ascent will be focused northeast of the
   dryline-cold front triple point.

   Given more marginal moisture/buoyancy with northward extent, the
   initial storms along the cold front should evolve into a line with a
   marginal damaging wind risk per strong low-midlevel winds/shear and
   relatively straight hodographs.  The risk for strong/severe storms
   should be a little greater and persist longer to the south, in
   proximity to richer low-level moisture.  While the convective mode
   will trend toward linear organization, deep-layer and low-level
   shear will be favorable for some embedded supercell risk from parts
   of MO southwestward.  Convection will develop southward overnight as
   the cold front overtakes the remnant dryline across KS/OK.  Storm
   initiation still seems questionable at best along the dryline in OK.
   The stronger forcing for ascent will pass well to the north,
   somewhat veered low-level flow will not favor long residence times
   in the zone of ascent along the dryline, and high clouds could limit
   surface heating somewhat.

   ..Thompson.. 03/05/2017

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