SPC AC 060529

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1229 AM CDT Fri Oct 06 2017

   Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWEST
   KS INTO THE TX PANHANDLE...

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH-CENTRAL
   KS TO THE TX SOUTH PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
   SLGT RISK FROM NORTHWEST TX TO SOUTHWEST IA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered severe storms are likely from parts of Kansas into the
   Texas Panhandle. Very large hail, a few tornadoes, and damaging
   winds will be possible.

   ...Central and Southern Plains...

   Well-defined short-wave trough is currently observed on water vapor
   imagery moving southeast across ID/NV toward the central Rockies, in
   general agreement with latest model guidance. 00z NAM suggests a
   strengthening 500mb speed max, on the order of 75kt, will translate
   across the 4-corners region into southwest KS during the afternoon
   which should induce a lee surface cyclone over southeast CO early in
   the period. This feature is expected to shift into southwest KS by
   21z with a trailing dry line expected to surge across northeast NM
   into the western OK Panhandle as a narrow corridor of strong
   boundary-layer heating should contribute to steepening low-level
   lapse rates and southwesterly low-level flow across the high Plains
   of NM. Seasonally high PW values are currently noted across this
   region with values near 1.5" along the TX/NM border. In the absence
   of strong CIN convection should readily develop ahead of the dry
   line by mid afternoon, initially across the central high Plains
   where strong forcing for ascent will be focused. Notable 12hr
   mid-level height falls will extend as far south as the TX south
   Plains during the evening prior to the trough passage around 07/06z.


   While early-day convection may be ongoing across the southern high
   Plains, it appears the primary focus for robust convection will be
   during the afternoon/evening hours as mid-level jet translates into
   the central Plains. Forecast soundings suggest thunderstorms will
   likely initiate along the dry line and synoptic front as it surges
   southeast into KS. Initial storm mode should be supercellular in
   nature, though frontal forcing should encourage more linear
   structures during the evening. Very large hail could accompany these
   storms and damaging winds are possible, especially during the late
   evening when discrete structures evolve into bow-type line segments.
   A few tornadoes may also be noted with mature supercells before
   linear MCS evolves and advances into central KS/western OK.

   ..Darrow/Leitman.. 10/06/2017

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