Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
86,575
4,540,697
Denver, CO...Colorado Springs, CO...Aurora, CO...Lakewood, CO...Fort Collins, CO...
5 %
174,484
3,494,546
Salt Lake City, UT...West Valley City, UT...Provo, UT...West Jordan, UT...Orem, UT...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
69,647
4,007,421
Denver, CO...Colorado Springs, CO...Aurora, CO...Lakewood, CO...Thornton, CO...
5 %
196,303
4,971,862
Salt Lake City, UT...Fort Collins, CO...West Valley City, UT...Provo, UT...West Jordan, UT...
SPC AC 081955
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0255 PM CDT Mon May 08 2017
Valid 082000Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OUTSIDE OF THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from parts
of the central Rockies into eastern Colorado south into eastern New
Mexico this afternoon and evening.
The only change to the outlook is to remove thunder from parts of
the Dakotas behind a cold front that is moving eastward across the
northern Plains.
..Broyles.. 05/08/2017
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Mon May 08 2017/
...Central and Southern High Plains...
A surface cold front continues to slowly move south across northeast
Colorado, southern Nebraska, and northern Kansas. To the north of
this front, persistent upslope flow into the mountains will support
thunderstorm development during the afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse
rates atop a well-mixed boundary layer will support large hail and
damaging thunderstorm winds/dry micro bursts. This activity should
spread northeast into the evening hours.
Farther south, across southeast Colorado southward into east New
Mexico, southeast low-level flow will continue to advect slightly
better moisture into the High Plains. Isolated thunderstorms are
expected to develop by mid-late afternoon. Given deep-layer shear
values around 30 knots, and most unstable CAPE values between
1500-2000 J/kg, supercells will be possible, with a large hail and
damaging thunderstorm winds risk.
Overall across the High Plains, marginal low-level moisture and weak
low-level shear should limit the tornado threat, although a tornado
or two cannot be ruled out across northeast Colorado in associated
with the surface front and Denver Cyclone.
...Northeast UT across southern WY this afternoon/evening...
A few strong/isolated severe storms are expected this afternoon.
Modest boundary-layer moisture beneath the northern extent of the
steep lapse rate plume will result in sufficient buoyancy for
marginally severe hail/winds, given deep-layer southerly shear and
lift along the boundary.
...Southern Minnesota and Northern Iowa this evening and
overnight...
Warm-air advection atop a weak surface front this evening and
overnight will allow for the development of showers and
thunderstorms. Most unstable CAPE values will be sufficient to
support an isolated hail threat with the strongest thunderstorm
cores.
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