Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
SPC AC 071958
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0258 PM CDT Sun May 07 2017
Valid 072000Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
WY/MT/SD...
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong storms capable of marginally severe hail and wind
will be possible across northeast Wyoming and southeast Montana this
afternoon and evening. Isolated damaging wind gusts will also be
possible in high-based dry microbursts over parts of the High
Plains.
...Discussion...
The only minor change this outlook update was to adjust the
5-percent wind probabilities over the central High Plains westward
closer to the higher terrain where confidence in greater storm
coverage is located. Recent iterations of short-term model guidance
and visible satellite imagery seem supportive of this notion.
..Smith.. 05/07/2017
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Sun May 07 2017/
...WY/MT...
No changes have been made to the MRGL risk area over parts of
northern WY and southeast MT. 12z model guidance continues to
suggest that scattered thunderstorms will form this afternoon over
central MT and north-central WY. This activity will be in a region
of steep low-level lapse rates and sufficient CAPE for a few
vigorous updrafts. Moderately strong deep-layer shear will promote
organized/rotating storms capable of gusty winds and hail. The
coverage of strong storms appears limited and the overall severe
threat is expected to be marginal.
...Central and Southern High Plains...
Strong daytime heating is currently occurring over the High Plains
of northeast NM, eastern CO, and adjacent parts of TX/OK/KS. A
southerly low-level jet is forecast to develop by early evening,
when scattered diurnal high-based showers and thunderstorms will be
present. The combination of inverted-v thermodynamic profiles and
strengthening low-level flow suggest a risk of damaging
dry-microburst wind gusts in convection later today.
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
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