New York, NY...Philadelphia, PA...Baltimore, MD...Boston, MA...Washington, DC...
Probabilistic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
156,387
57,110,518
New York, NY...Philadelphia, PA...Baltimore, MD...Boston, MA...Washington, DC...
SPC AC 051727
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1227 PM CDT FRI AUG 05 2016
VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND VICINITY
AND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SERN CO AND INTO
ADJACENT WRN KS...
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS...SOME PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS...ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
...SYNOPSIS...
CONTINUED PROGRESSION OF AN ERN CANADA UPPER TROUGH -- AND AN
ASSOCIATED VORT MAX ON ITS SRN FRINGE LIKELY TRAVERSING THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD -- IS FORECAST THIS
PERIOD...AND WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT EWD
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND SEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/TN AND
MID MS VALLEYS/CENTRAL PLAINS. MEANWHILE IN THE W...AN UPPER LOW IS
PROGGED TO LINGER INVOF VANCOUVER ISLAND...WHILE A SMALLER VORT MAX
ON THE SRN FRINGE OF THE LOW SHIFTS OUT OF THE ERN PACIFIC AND INTO
CA WITH TIME. THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT -- CROSSING NEW
ENGLAND WHILE SAGGING SWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS -- WILL BE THE
PRIMARY SYNOPTIC FEATURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREDOMINANT
CONVECTIVE/SEVERE RISK THIS PERIOD.
...NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...
LINGERING CLOUDS/SHOWERS EARLY IN THE PERIOD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS AT LEAST PARTS OF THE NERN STATES...WHILE MODELS
ALSO DIFFER SUBTLY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF THE FRONTAL ADVANCE.
THESE TWO UNCERTAINTIES CONTRIBUTE TO QUESTIONS REGARDING CONVECTIVE
EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED DEGREE OF SEVERE RISK ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
DAY 2/SAT.
IN GENERAL...ASCENT INVOF THE FRONT AND AT LEAST SOME
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD SUPPORT
AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT OF ONE OR MORE BANDS OF STORMS ACROSS THE
MRGL/5% RISK AREA. WITH CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW AOA 40 KT ACROSS
THE REGION...POTENTIAL FOR RELATIVELY FAST-MOVING/ORGANIZED STORMS
IS APPARENT...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED RISK FOR LOCALLY GUSTY/DAMAGING
WINDS. WHILE POCKETS OF STRONGER HEATING/DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL LIKELY FAVOR LOCALLY GREATER CONVECTIVE/SEVERE
RISK...UNCERTAINTIES DESCRIBED ABOVE LIMIT CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT
TO HIGHLIGHTING ANY GREATER AREAS OF RISK ATTM. THUS -- WHILE A
LATER UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK ACROSS PARTS OF THIS AREA WILL REQUIRE
CONSIDERATION...WILL MAINTAIN A BROAD 5% RISK AREA THIS FORECAST.
STORMS SHOULD CROSS NEW ENGLAND AND SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...WHILE POSSIBLY PERSISTING INTO THE EVENING
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AREA WHERE THE FRONT
SHOULD LINGER/MOVE MORE SLOWLY SEWD.
...SERN CO VICINITY...
AS COLD FRONT SETTLES SWD AND LINGERS OVER SERN CO AND EWD ACROSS
THE OK/KS BORDER VICINITY...AND A WEAK FRONTAL LOW EVOLVES INVOF THE
OK PANHANDLE...ASCENT -- BOTH INVOF THE LOW/FRONT AS WELL AS WITHIN
THE ZONE OF UPSLOPE-AIDED ASCENT IN THE POST-FRONTAL ELYS -- WILL
EXIST INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HEATING/DESTABILIZATION OF THE
RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER EXPECTED OVER SERN CO COMBINED WITH
THE AVAILABLE ASCENT SHOULD YIELD SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THOUGH WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK
/AROUND 20 KT/ ACROSS THIS AREA...THE PRESENCE OF LOW-LEVEL ELY/SELY
WINDS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO AMPLE SHEAR FOR A FEW STRONGER/ORGANIZED
UPDRAFTS -- AND POSSIBLY LIMITED SEVERE RISK INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS.
..GOSS.. 08/05/2016
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