SPC AC 051727

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1227 PM CDT FRI AUG 05 2016

   VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND VICINITY
   AND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SERN CO AND INTO
   ADJACENT WRN KS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED STRONG STORMS...SOME PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS...ARE POSSIBLE
   ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE CENTRAL
   HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   CONTINUED PROGRESSION OF AN ERN CANADA UPPER TROUGH -- AND AN
   ASSOCIATED VORT MAX ON ITS SRN FRINGE LIKELY TRAVERSING THE LOWER
   GREAT LAKES AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD -- IS FORECAST THIS
   PERIOD...AND WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT EWD
   ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND SEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/TN AND
   MID MS VALLEYS/CENTRAL PLAINS.  MEANWHILE IN THE W...AN UPPER LOW IS
   PROGGED TO LINGER INVOF VANCOUVER ISLAND...WHILE A SMALLER VORT MAX
   ON THE SRN FRINGE OF THE LOW SHIFTS OUT OF THE ERN PACIFIC AND INTO
   CA WITH TIME.  THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT -- CROSSING NEW
   ENGLAND WHILE SAGGING SWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS -- WILL BE THE
   PRIMARY SYNOPTIC FEATURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREDOMINANT
   CONVECTIVE/SEVERE RISK THIS PERIOD.

   ...NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...
   LINGERING CLOUDS/SHOWERS EARLY IN THE PERIOD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
   ARE EXPECTED ACROSS AT LEAST PARTS OF THE NERN STATES...WHILE MODELS
   ALSO DIFFER SUBTLY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF THE FRONTAL ADVANCE. 
   THESE TWO UNCERTAINTIES CONTRIBUTE TO QUESTIONS REGARDING CONVECTIVE
   EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED DEGREE OF SEVERE RISK ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
   DAY 2/SAT.  

   IN GENERAL...ASCENT INVOF THE FRONT AND AT LEAST SOME
   HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD SUPPORT
   AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT OF ONE OR MORE BANDS OF STORMS ACROSS THE
   MRGL/5% RISK AREA.  WITH CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW AOA 40 KT ACROSS
   THE REGION...POTENTIAL FOR RELATIVELY FAST-MOVING/ORGANIZED STORMS
   IS APPARENT...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED RISK FOR LOCALLY GUSTY/DAMAGING
   WINDS.  WHILE POCKETS OF STRONGER HEATING/DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF
   THE FRONT WILL LIKELY FAVOR LOCALLY GREATER CONVECTIVE/SEVERE
   RISK...UNCERTAINTIES DESCRIBED ABOVE LIMIT CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT
   TO HIGHLIGHTING ANY GREATER AREAS OF RISK ATTM.  THUS -- WHILE A
   LATER UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK ACROSS PARTS OF THIS AREA WILL REQUIRE
   CONSIDERATION...WILL MAINTAIN A BROAD 5% RISK AREA THIS FORECAST. 
   STORMS SHOULD CROSS NEW ENGLAND AND SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH LATE
   AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...WHILE POSSIBLY PERSISTING INTO THE EVENING
   ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AREA WHERE THE FRONT 
   SHOULD LINGER/MOVE MORE SLOWLY SEWD.

   ...SERN CO VICINITY...
   AS COLD FRONT SETTLES SWD AND LINGERS OVER SERN CO AND EWD ACROSS
   THE OK/KS BORDER VICINITY...AND A WEAK FRONTAL LOW EVOLVES INVOF THE
   OK PANHANDLE...ASCENT -- BOTH INVOF THE LOW/FRONT AS WELL AS WITHIN
   THE ZONE OF UPSLOPE-AIDED ASCENT IN THE POST-FRONTAL ELYS -- WILL
   EXIST INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  HEATING/DESTABILIZATION OF THE
   RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER EXPECTED OVER SERN CO COMBINED WITH
   THE AVAILABLE ASCENT SHOULD YIELD SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING
   THE AFTERNOON.  THOUGH WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK
   /AROUND 20 KT/ ACROSS THIS AREA...THE PRESENCE OF LOW-LEVEL ELY/SELY
   WINDS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO AMPLE SHEAR FOR A FEW STRONGER/ORGANIZED
   UPDRAFTS -- AND POSSIBLY LIMITED SEVERE RISK INTO THE EARLY EVENING
   HOURS.

   ..GOSS.. 08/05/2016

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z