SPC AC 180538

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1238 AM CDT MON APR 18 2016

   VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SW AND CNTRL
   TX...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND
   CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

   ...SRN PLAINS...
   AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD INTO THE CNTRL HIGH
   PLAINS ON TUESDAY AS WEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
   THE SRN PLAINS. THE MOIST SECTOR IS FORECAST TO BE ACROSS THE SERN
   TWO-THIRDS OF TX WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F. MODERATE AND EVEN
   STRONG INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE MOIST SECTOR BY
   TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT THE GFS...ECMWF AND NAM ARE IN DISAGREEMENT
   ABOUT EXACTLY WHERE. ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE MOIST
   SECTOR IS FORECAST TO BE LIMITED ON TUESDAY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE ALONG CORRIDORS OF ENHANCED
   LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD APPROACH SEVERE
   LEVELS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS ACROSS WCNTRL TX FOR 00Z/WED SHOW MODERATE TO STRONG
   INSTABILITY IN SW AND CNTRL TX WITH MLCAPE OF 2000 TO 2500 J/KG BUT
   KEEP 0-6 KM SHEAR ONLY AT 25 TO 30 KT. THIS ALONG WITH MODESTLY
   STEEP LAPSE RATES WOULD BE MARGINAL FOR SUPERCELLS BUT WOULD SUPPORT
   MULTICELL STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. ISOLATED
   CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ALONG WITH THE RELATIVE WEAKNESS IN THE WIND
   FIELDS SUGGEST THAT A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WILL BE APPROPRIATE FOR
   TUESDAY.

   ..BROYLES.. 04/18/2016

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z