Denver, CO...Kansas City, MO...Tulsa, OK...Colorado Springs, CO...Wichita, KS...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Charlotte, NC...Denver, CO...Kansas City, MO...Tulsa, OK...Colorado Springs, CO...
SPC AC 301949
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0249 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016
VALID 302000Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SERN CO AND WRN KS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM MO NWD INTO SWRN WI...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF WRN AND CNTRL
NC...
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS INTO VA...
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CNTRL PLAINS
AND MID MS VALLEY...
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS NWRN MT...
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN AN ARC
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND ALSO OVER
THE CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHERN VIRGINIA...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK.
..JEWELL.. 06/30/2016
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016/
...UPPER MS VALLEY INTO MO...
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH ROTATING INTO MN...WITH
MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING SOUTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE
UPPER/MID MS VALLEY. OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD
COVER IS MOVING EASTWARD INTO IL...RESULTING IN A CORRIDOR OF STRONG
HEATING FROM SOUTHERN WI...ACROSS EASTERN IA...INTO MO. DEWPOINTS
IN THE 60S OVER THIS REGION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RELATIVELY STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGEST A
RISK OF LARGE HAIL IN THE STRONGER STORMS. GIVEN CONSISTENT SIGNAL
FOR CONVECTION AND TRENDS IN DESTABILIZATION... HAVE OPTED TO
UPGRADE THIS REGION TO SLIGHT RISK.
...NC...
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT IS PRESENT TODAY OVER THE EASTERN
STATES...WITH THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS. A MOIST SURFACE AIR MASS HAS RETURNED TO MUCH OF
NC...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN STRONG INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON.
PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM OVER
MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN NC AND DRIFT EASTWARD DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. THE STRONGEST CELLS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY/DAMAGING
WINDS.
...CO/KS...
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTHERN KS INTO SOUTHEAST
CO. WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS PRESENT TODAY ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...WHERE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND FULL SUNSHINE WILL RESULT
IN MODERATE AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES. A WEAK BUT LONG-LIVED MCV IS
NOTED OVER SOUTHWEST CO MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD. THIS FEATURE MAY
ENCOURAGE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
OVER SOUTHEAST CO. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO WESTERN KS
DURING THE EVENING. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS HAVE PROMPTED A SMALL SLIGHT RISK FOR
THIS REGION...WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
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