SPC AC 231928

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0228 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016

   VALID 232000Z - 241200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OH
   VALLEY INTO WRN VA...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OH
   VALLEY INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SRN KS...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS TO THE
   MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND
   POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO...ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
   TONIGHT FROM PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN MID
   ATLANTIC.  A MORE ISOLATED WIND AND HAIL RISK WILL EXTEND WEST TO
   SOUTHERN KANSAS AND THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

   ...DISCUSSION...

   HAVE MADE ONE MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO 1630Z OUTLOOK BY LOWERING
   PROBABILITIES OVER PORTIONS OF ERN WV AND WRN VA.

   EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING HAS STABILIZED PORTIONS OF ERN WV
   AND WRN VA THIS AFTERNOON.  WHILE WLY TRAJECTORIES SUGGEST INFLOW
   LAYER IS FROM MORE BUOYANT REGIONS OF THE LOWER OH VALLEY...IT
   APPEARS ERN-MOST PORTIONS OF CAT3/ENH RISK CAN BE DOWNGRADED TO SLGT
   FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.  NUMEROUS TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING UPSTREAM
   ALONG THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND THIS CONVECTION WILL PROPAGATE SEWD IN
   LINE WITH EARLIER THINKING.

   ..DARROW.. 06/23/2016

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT THU JUN 23 2016/

   ...OH VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...
   THE REMNANTS OF A LONG-LIVED MCS CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD
   AND DECAY ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER AT MIDDAY...WITH TRAILING OUTFLOW
   EXTENDING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TOWARD SOUTHERN WV AND
   NEAR/NORTH OF THE WV/OH BORDER VICINITY...WITH STORMS CONTINUING TO
   REGENERATE MAINLY ACROSS WV. AS THE AIR MASS DESTABILIZES ON THE
   SOUTHERN FRINGES OF PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER/OUTFLOW...ADDITIONAL
   STORM DEVELOPMENT/INTENSIFICATION MAY OCCUR DOWNSTREAM ACROSS
   SOUTHERN VA/NORTHERN NC THIS AFTERNOON WITH BOUTS OF WIND DAMAGE AS
   THE MOST PROBABLE SEVERE HAZARD.

   MEANWHILE...WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS/ACROSS THE OH VALLEY...THE
   AFOREMENTIONED TRAILING OUTFLOW WILL STALL AND POTENTIALLY RETREAT
   NORTHWARD TODAY. A FAST-MOVING/DEAMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   /CURRENTLY OVER LOWER MI/ WILL CONTRIBUTE TO RENEWED THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT AS IT APPROACHES THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATER
   TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF THE REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...BUT
   POTENTIALLY ALSO NEAR A SURFACE LOW AND THE SYNOPTIC FRONT.
   SEASONALLY /VERY/ STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT
   WELL-ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
   WV/EASTERN KY AND FAR SOUTHERN OH. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
   WILL BE THE MOST PREVALENT HAZARDS...BUT A TORNADO OR TWO MAY BE
   POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY WITH LINGERING INFLUENCE OF THE EARLY-DAY
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THIS CONVECTION MAY ULTIMATELY GROW UPSCALE INTO A
   SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING CLUSTER OR TWO THROUGH THIS EVENING.

   ...CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
   A WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPEARS TO BE PROGRESSING EASTWARD
   ACROSS SOUTHERN WY/NORTHERN CO PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AS THIS
   IMPULSE PROGRESSES EASTWARD...ADDITIONAL LEE-SIDE LOW/TROUGH
   DEVELOPMENT WILL INFLUENCE INCREASINGLY MOIST LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE
   FLOW. DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG THE CO/WY
   FRONT RANGE...WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO POSE AT LEAST SOME
   SEVERE HAIL/WIND RISK AS THEY ENCOUNTER SOMEWHAT RICHER LOW-LEVEL
   MOISTURE ACROSS EASTERN CO/NEB PANHANDLE. UPWARDS OF 25-35 KT OF
   EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL SUPPORT PRIMARILY MULTICELL CLUSTERS ALTHOUGH
   SOME MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES MAY OCCUR WITH A MODEST INCREASE
   IN VERTICAL SHEAR THIS EVENING.

   FARTHER NORTH...ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS
   CENTRAL MT THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AND MOVE INTO A MODESTLY
   MOIST/UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST MT. AT
   LEAST A FEW INSTANCES OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY
   OUTFLOW-RELATED WINDS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
   EVENING.

   ...SOUTHERN KS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
   A REMNANT MCV FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
   SLOWLY EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER SOUTHERN KS...WITH
   THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT/INTENSIFICATION EXPECTED TO BE
   SEMI-FOCUSED AHEAD OF THE MCV AND NEAR A STALLED ROUGHLY
   WEST/EAST-ORIENTED BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS.
   MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR AND AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN THE
   PRESENCE OF NEAR 70F SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME
   POTENTIAL FOR DOWNBURST WINDS/PULSE-TYPE HAIL.

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