SPC AC 182001

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0301 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2016

   VALID 182000Z - 191200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NERN MT AND
   INTO NRN ND...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NRN MT EWD TO NRN MN...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF WRN LA AND INTO
   E TX...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF MT EWD TO THE
   UPPER MS VALLEY AREA...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE E TX/LA/SRN
   MS VICINITY...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
   AND SRN PLAINS FROM CENTRAL KS SSWWD TO NWRN TX...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FL
   PENINSULA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF VERY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL ARE
   POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FROM NORTHERN MONTANA INTO
   NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA.  A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
   MAINLY LOCAL WIND DAMAGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN
   LOUISIANA AND INTO ADJACENT EAST TEXAS.  FINALLY...A FEW MARGINALLY
   SEVERE STORMS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

   ...DISCUSSION...
   FEW CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE EXISTING OUTLOOK /ASIDE FROM MINOR
   LINE TWEAKS/...AS FORECAST REASONING REMAINS VALID.  THE GREATEST
   CHANGE HAS BEEN TO EXTEND THE SLIGHT RISK AREA FARTHER WWD ACROSS
   PARTS OF E TX...AS A SEMI-ORGANIZED BAND OF STORMS IS NOW CROSSING
   THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY AND WILL LIKELY PERSIST -- ALONG WITH
   LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND RISK -- THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

   ..GOSS.. 06/18/2016

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1138 AM CDT SAT JUN 18 2016/

   ...MT/NORTHERN PLAINS...
   INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT AND SIGNIFICANTLY STRENGTHENING
   MID/HIGH-LEVEL WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
   LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
   NORTHEASTWARD ADVANCEMENT OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE PACIFIC
   NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE FAR NORTHERN CONUS/CANADIAN ROCKIES. AS
   LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE OVERSPREADS AN INCREASINGLY MOIST
   AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL MT...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
   FORM BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY OVER MT WILL
   LIKELY BE SUPERCELLULAR...POSING A RISK OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND
   PERHAPS A TORNADO. IT STILL SEEMS LIKELY THAT COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
   WILL INCREASE AS STORMS MERGE/GROW UPSCALE AND TRACK INTO/ACROSS
   NORTHEAST MT AND NORTHWEST ND...WITH THE RISK OF A FAST-MOVING
   BOWING COMPLEX CAPABLE OF VERY DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
   WITHIN ROUGHLY 50-75 MILES OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THE
   POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THIS SEVERE THREAT TO PERSIST MUCH OF THE NIGHT
   AND TRACK INTO NORTHERN MN THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

   ...NORTHERN MN...
   A PROBABLE MCV WILL AID THE CONTINUED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT OF
   A CURRENTLY ELEVATED CLUSTERS OF STORMS. WHILE CLOUD COVER PERSISTS
   AHEAD OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS...THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY THAT
   DOWNSTREAM INTENSIFICATION MAY OCCUR LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
   PARTS OF NORTHERN MN. OTHERWISE...LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY...A
   WELL-ORGANIZED MCS MAY REACH AT LEAST PARTS OF FAR NORTHERN MN WITH
   A DAMAGING WIND RISK.

   ...LA/EAST TX...
   MULTIPLE STORM CLUSTERS ONGOING ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN LA AND
   SOUTHWEST MS AT LATE MORNING ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD
   SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH AFTERNOON. SEASONALLY COOL MID-LEVEL
   TEMPERATURES /-11.5 C AT 500 MB PER LAKE CHARLES OBSERVED
   SOUNDING/...STRONG HEATING...AND MID/UPPER 70S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS
   TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THESE STORMS MAY SUPPORT UPDRAFT/DOWNDRAFT
   INTENSIFICATION THIS AFTERNOON AS STORMS BECOME INCREASING ROOTED
   NEAR THE SURFACE. ALTHOUGH MODESTLY ENHANCED NORTHERLY
   MID/HIGH-LEVEL WINDS EXIST ACROSS THE REGION...DEEP LAYER
   SHEAR/LOW-LEVEL INFLOW WILL REMAIN WEAK. REGARDLESS...AT LEAST
   LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS /AND POSSIBLY PULSE-TYPE HAIL/ WILL BE A
   POSSIBILITY THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS STORMS POTENTIALLY
   INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS...SEE
   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 976.

   ...WESTERN OK AND WEST/NORTHWEST TX...
   ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST DETAILS IS NOT PARTICULARLY
   HIGH...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP LATE THIS
   AFTERNOON/EVENING THIS EVENING. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...HOT TEMPERATURES
   AND AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN CONJUNCTION WITH MODERATELY STRONG
   NORTHERLY MID/HIGH-LEVEL WINDS COULD SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE.

   ...FL PENINSULA...
   A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT AND THE EAST-COAST SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION
   WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN A
   MOIST ENVIRONMENT. LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
   STRONGEST STORMS.

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