Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
SPC AC 152004
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0304 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016
VALID 152000Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS WI/MI...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN MT...
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES/CAROLINAS...
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS WISCONSIN INTO LOWER MICHIGAN...AS WELL
AS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MONTANA...WITH
ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE
CAROLINAS.
...WI/MI...
THE SEVERE PROBABILITIES AND CATEGORICAL SEVERE RISK AREAS HAVE BEEN
EXPANDED NORTHWARD SOME ACROSS NORTHERN WI...GIVEN THE CURRENT
POSITION OF THE WARM FRONT IN THIS REGION. MEANWHILE...SEVERE
PROBABILITIES/SEVERE-RISK AREAS HAVE BEEN REMOVED ACROSS PART OF
NORTHWEST WI...GIVEN A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST AND A STABILIZING AIR
MASS.
...OH/TN VALLEYS...
MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE SEVERE PROBABILITIES/SLIGHT RISK
AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR ONGOING AND EXPECTED MOVEMENT OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
...EASTERN NC/NORTHEAST SC...
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
GIVEN MODERATELY STRONG INSTABILITY ALONG AND WEST OF THE SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES...WITH ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE MARGINAL RISK AREA DUE TO
WESTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES.
...SOUTHEAST NM/FAR WEST TX...
THE GENERAL TSTM AND MARGINAL SEVERE RISK /STRONG WIND GUSTS/ HAVE
BEEN EXPANDED WEST ACROSS THESE AREAS GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS AS STORMS MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO AN
ENVIRONMENT WITH DCAPE OF 1500-2000+ J/KG.
..PETERS.. 06/15/2016
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1140 AM CDT WED JUN 15 2016/
...WI/MI...
AN UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER NORTHERN WI/UPPER MI
PENINSULA THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH A SOUTHERN-PERIPHERAL BELT OF
35-50 KT WESTERLIES NOTED IN 12Z UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF WI/MI
AND NORTHERN IL/INDIANA. A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS WI AND AN INCREASINGLY NARROW/LESS STABLE WARM SECTOR
/PARTICULARLY GIVEN RESIDUAL STRATUS/ WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT ACROSS
WI.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT AN INITIAL INCREASE OF SURFACE-BASED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL WI THROUGH
EARLY/MID-AFTERNOON. THIS STORMS SHOULD INTENSIFY WITHIN A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR WARM SECTOR...LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTHERN
FRINGES OF A GRADUALLY ABATING STRATUS FIELD NOTED IN VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY AS OF LATE MORNING. THE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED BELT
OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT VERTICAL
SHEAR FOR SOME INITIAL SUPERCELLS AND SUBSEQUENT
SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING ORGANIZED CLUSTERS/BANDS. BACKED LOW-LEVEL
WINDS NEAR THE WARM FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT A RISK FOR A TORNADIC STORM
OR TWO ASIDE FROM THE RISK FOR HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. AT LEAST SOME
SEVERE RISK COULD SPREAD DOWNSTREAM /SOUTHEASTWARD/ AND REACH PARTS
OF LOWER MI AND/OR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF IL/INDIANA THIS EVENING.
...OH/TN VALLEYS...
SOME RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER PERSISTS PARTICULARLY ACROSS OH/SOUTHERN
INDIANA AND PARTS OF THE TN VALLEY NEAR MULTIPLE BANDS OF
CONVECTION/OUTFLOW. MIDDAY VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST THAT AMPLE INSOLATION WILL OCCUR AHEAD AND BEHIND THESE
SMALL RESIDUAL CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS...WITHIN A RICHLY MOIST AIR MASS
CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS. RENEWED
SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALONG
REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND WITH AID OF A POSSIBLE MCV OVER THE
LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY AT MIDDAY. STRONG INSTABILITY AND MODEST DEEP
SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT SEVERAL GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING
SEMI-ORGANIZED CLUSTERS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY HAZARD.
...NORTHERN ROCKIES/MT...
SHOWERS/CLOUD COVER ARE PREVALENT LATE THIS MORNING FROM ID INTO
SOUTH-CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL MT...ALTHOUGH STRONGER INSOLATION IS
GENERALLY PRESENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST MT. CURRENT CLOUD COVER AND
MINIMAL LARGE-SCALE ASCENT OWING TO THE BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE
SUGGESTS DIABATICALLY-DRIVEN STORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE RELEGATED
TO PARTS OF ID/SOUTHWEST MT. A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE SHOULD APPROACH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT. THIS WILL YIELD INTENSIFYING LOW-LEVEL
MASS RESPONSE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. WHILE MLCIN WILL PROBABLY REMAIN
LARGE...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ELEVATED STORMS MAY FORM.
SUFFICIENT SPEED SHEAR WITHIN THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER SHOULD SUPPORT
A PRIMARY RISK OF SEVERE HAIL AND POSSIBLY GUSTY WINDS.
...KS/OK TO WEST/SOUTHWEST TX...
A WEAKLY FORCED SCENARIO IS EXPECTED AS UPPER HEIGHTS WILL RISE
TODAY WITH MODEST CONVERGENCE NEAR A DRYLINE. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL
BE QUITE LIMITED OWING TO WEAK TROPOSPHERIC WINDS...ALTHOUGH MORNING
UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS SUGGESTS SOMEWHAT STRONGER HIGH-LEVEL FLOW /40+
KT 250 MB/ WILL EXIST. REGARDLESS...STRONG INSOLATION AND A VERY
MOIST AIRMASS WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND HIGH-END INSTABILITY
WOULD CONDITIONALLY SUPPORT AT LEAST A RELATIVELY
SHORT-DURATION/DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SEVERE RISK LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IF/WHERE STORMS FORM FROM KS SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO
WEST/SOUTHWEST TX.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
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