Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
47,831
865,133
Abilene, TX...Wichita Falls, TX...Midland, TX...Lawton, OK...San Angelo, TX...
2 %
69,536
2,741,530
Oklahoma City, OK...Lubbock, TX...Norman, OK...Odessa, TX...Edmond, OK...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
112,966
3,284,255
Oklahoma City, OK...Lubbock, TX...Abilene, TX...Norman, OK...Wichita Falls, TX...
SPC AC 231233
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0733 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016
VALID 231300Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
TONIGHT FROM W/NW TX INTO SW OK...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WRN OK TO SW TX...
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NE TX TO KS...AND THEN
NEWD TO PARTS OF ERN NEB/WRN IA AND MN...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM
WESTERN OKLAHOMA TO WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST TEXAS. VERY LARGE
HAIL...A FEW TORNADOES...AND ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS WILL ALL BE
POSSIBLE.
...SW OK TO W/NW TX THROUGH TONIGHT...
AN MCS THAT EVOLVED FROM A SUPERCELL CLUSTER OVER THE SE TX
PANHANDLE SUNDAY EVENING PERSISTS THIS MORNING AS A LEADING
CONVECTIVE LINE JUST S OF THE RED RIVER...AND AN ACCOMPANYING MCV
FARTHER N OVER OK. THE MCS IS MOVING INTO A LESS MOIST/UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT...WITH THE MORE PROBABLE AREA FOR PERSISTENCE ACROSS NE
TX ALONG THE MOISTURE/BUOYANCY GRADIENT. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
TO THE W OVER THE TRAILING COLD POOL WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS LOW-LEVEL
WAA WEAKENS IN CONJUNCTION WITH VEERING AND WEAKENING OF LOW-LEVEL
FLOW. SWD MOTION OF THE COLD POOL HAS ALMOST CEASED ACROSS NW
TX...AND MAY BEGIN TO DRIFT NWD BY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE AIR MASS ON
THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY BEGINS TO MODIFY.
MEANWHILE...WATER VAPOR LOOPS REVEAL EVIDENCE OF A SUBTLE SPEED MAX
OVER EXTREME NW MEXICO THAT WILL EJECT NEWD TO THE TX PANHANDLE/NW
TX BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO MIX EWD TO NEAR
THE CAPROCK THIS AFTERNOON...AND CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL WEAKEN
ALONG THE DRYLINE AND AT THE INTERSECTION WITH THE RESIDUAL OUTFLOW.
BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 F AND AFTERNOON SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S...BENEATH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...WILL
RESULT IN EXTREME BUOYANCY WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 4000-5000 J/KG AND
MINIMAL CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. THE ARRIVAL OF THE SPEED MAX ROUGHLY
IN PHASE WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS NW TX UP TO THE RESIDUAL
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN OK.
THE EXTREME BUOYANCY AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 35-45 KT WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING GUSTS. A FEW TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND
MOISTURE WILL BE MOST FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. CONVECTION
MAY AGAIN GROW INTO AN MCS TONIGHT AND SPREAD EWD NEAR THE RED
RIVER...WITH A CONTINUED HAIL/WIND RISK OVERNIGHT.
...KS TO ERN NEB/WRN IA AND MN...
AN EXPANSIVE COLD POOL HAS BEEN PRODUCED BY THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
ACROSS OK/N TX...AND ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS FORMING FARTHER N
ACROSS ERN KS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MIDLEVEL WAVE THAT MAY HAVE BEEN
ENHANCED BY CONVECTION YESTERDAY. STRONG AIR MASS RECOVERY APPEARS
UNLIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THIS AREA GIVEN THE TIMING/LOCATION OF THE
ONGOING CONVECTION...PLUS THE LINGERING INFLUENCE OF THE LARGE COLD
POOL ACROSS OK. THUS...A MARGINAL HAIL/WIND RISK APPEARS MOST
APPROPRIATE IN THIS OUTLOOK UPDATE.
..THOMPSON/COHEN.. 05/23/2016
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
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