Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
SPC AC 221936
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0236 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016
VALID 222000Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS...
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS A BROAD PORTION OF THE
GREAT PLAINS TODAY. PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND...BUT A FEW TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
...GREAT PLAINS...
EARLIER THOUGHTS REGARDING SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT REMAIN.
HOWEVER...HAVE MADE MINOR NWD ADJUSTMENT TO ENH SEVERE RISK TO
INCLUDE PORTIONS OF SWRN KS. APPARENT HOMOGENEOUS BOUNDARY LAYER
AIR MASS RESIDES ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS INTO SWRN KS. CU FIELD
IS EXPANDING AND DEEPENING EAST OF THE DRY LINE AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW OBSERVED NEAR CDS. SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF
AGITATED CU EXTENDS NWWD INTO THE NRN TX PANHANDLE. GIVEN THE
MODEST DIFFLUENT HIGH-LEVEL FLOW FOR VENTING...IT APPEARS ROBUST
HAIL-PRODUCING SUPERCELLS WILL SOON DEVELOP. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE.
..DARROW.. 05/22/2016
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016/
...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER
MUCH OF THE OK/TX PANHANDLES INTO WEST TX. THIS AREA HAS BECOME
VERY MOIST OVERNIGHT WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S AS
FAR WEST AS EASTERN NM. BY MID AFTERNOON...THE N-S SURFACE DRYLINE
WILL LIKELY BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS WEST TX AND BE THE FOCUS FOR
INTENSE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE STRONG WITH MLCAPE VALUES OVER 4000 J/KG...STEEP
LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND A WEAK CAP. HOWEVER...MANY RECENT
MODEL SOLUTIONS STRUGGLE TO PORTRAY MORNING CONVECTION AND ITS
EFFECTS ON AFTERNOON INITIATION. GIVEN TRENDS IN
RADAR/SATELLITE...BELIEVE THAT EARLY ACTIVITY WILL BE QUITE LIMITED.
THIS WILL RESULT IN AN ENHANCED RISK OF DISCRETE SLOW-MOVING
SUPERCELLS FORMING ALONG THE DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON. VERY LARGE
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS REGION...ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS.
LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY AROUND
SUNSET...WHICH MAY ALSO INCREASE THE RISK OF A FEW TORNADOES. LACK
OF DISCERNIBLE LARGE SCALE FORCING MECHANISMS WILL LIKELY ALLOW THE
STORMS TO WEAKEN BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
...NORTHERN PLAINS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
WESTERN UT. LARGE SCALE UPPER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
WILL SPREAD INTO WY/CO THIS AFTERNOON...AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THIS EVENING. 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ACROSS PARTS OF ND/SD/NORTHERN NEB
BY 00Z AND SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE EVENING/NIGHT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF ALL RISKS.
HAVE ADDED A SMALL 5 PERCENT TORNADO RISK AREA TO PARTS OF SD/NEB
WHERE SLIGHTLY BACKED LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST...AND WHERE
SEVERAL 12Z CAM SOLUTIONS INDICATE A HIGHER RISK OF DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ACTIVITY MAY GROW UPSCALE
DURING THE EVENING WITH A CONTINUED RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
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