SPC AC 171632

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1132 AM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016

   VALID 171630Z - 181200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE RIO
   GRANDE VALLEY/EDWARDS PLATEAU REGION OF TEXAS...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE ENHANCED RISK
   AREA...EXTENDING FROM ERN PORTIONS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN TO THE TX
   GULF COAST...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK
   AREA ACROSS TX...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FL
   PENINSULA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   CLUSTERS OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
   LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND ARE EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL AND
   SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS.  MORE WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
   MAY OCCUR EASTWARD TOWARD THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST...AND ALSO
   ACROSS MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AS AN UPPER LOW DROPS SWD ACROSS SRN NV/SRN CA/WRN AZ TOWARD NRN
   PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF CA/NRN BAJA...A BELT OF MODERATE WSWLY FLOW
   WILL EXTEND FROM NRN MEXICO INTO TX.  FARTHER E...A WEAK SHORT-WAVE
   TROUGH CROSSING THE ERN GULF WILL ALSO AFFECT THE CONVECTIVE
   FORECAST FOR FL.

   AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE PLAINS/CENTRAL
   CONUS...IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING SWD ACROSS THE SRN
   PLAINS.  A WEAKER COOL FRONT WILL ALSO CONTINUE CROSSING THE NERN
   U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD.

   ...PARTS OF CENTRAL AND S TX...
   CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW CONTINUES MOVING SWD ACROSS TX...WITH THE
   BOUNDARY NOW EXTENDING FROM ROUGHLY THE EDWARDS PLATEAU SEWD ACROSS
   THE TX HILL COUNTRY.  MEANWHILE...THE MAIN COLD FRONT IS SHIFTING
   SWD ACROSS THE TX SOUTH PLAINS AND INTO N TX ATTM.

   THE AIRMASS BETWEEN THE MAIN COLD FRONT AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
   OUTFLOW -- I.E. MUCH OF NRN AND CENTRAL TX -- HAS BEEN STABILIZED
   SUBSTANTIALLY AT LOW LEVELS.  WHILE A FEW STORMS CAPABLE OF
   PRODUCING MARGINAL HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED LATER TODAY...THE PRIMARY
   FOCUS FOR SEVERE WEATHER HAS SHIFTED SWWD TOWARD THE EDWARDS
   PLATEAU/HILL COUNTRY/RIO GRANDE VALLEY AREA.

   IN THIS REGION...HEATING OF THE STILL-MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IS
   ONGOING...WHICH WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG
   MIXED-LAYER CAPE THROUGH THE DAY.  ASCENT NEAR AND JUST N OF THE
   SSWWD-MOVING OUTFLOW WILL ALLOW DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS TO OCCUR INVOF
   ERN PARTS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN...THE CONCHO VALLEY...AND SWD TOWARD
   THE TX BIG BEND AREA.  GIVEN MODERATE MID-LEVEL WLYS ATOP THE
   LOW-LEVEL ELY/SELY FLOW...SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED/SUPERCELL
   STORMS SUPPORT RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AS
   CONVECTION DEVELOPS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  A TORNADO OR TWO WILL
   ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE STORMS GROW UPSCALE AND
   SHIFT SEWD TOWARD S TX THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS AN ESELY LOW-LEVEL
   JET DEVELOPS.  HAIL/WIND RISK MAY PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
   AS STORMS SHIFT SEWD.

   ...FL PENINSULA...
   A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS FL -- BEING HEATED THROUGH
   FILTERED SUNSHINE -- IS RESULTING IN MODERATE DESTABILIZATION ACROSS
   MUCH OF THE FL PENINSULA...E OF A LARGE MCS OVER THE ERN GULF.  WITH
   MODERATE MID-LEVEL WSWLYS SUPPORTING POTENTIAL FOR SOME UPDRAFT
   ORGANIZATION AND FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED
   OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WILL INTRODUCE CAT 1/MRGL RISK.  FOR
   ADDITIONAL SHORT-TERM FORECAST INFORMATION/REASONING...PLEASE REFER
   TO SWOMCD 639.

   ..GOSS/GLEASON.. 05/17/2016

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z