Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Arlington, TX...Wichita, KS...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
297,639
24,379,901
Dallas, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Kansas City, MO...Omaha, NE...Tulsa, OK...
SPC AC 090550
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1250 AM CDT MON MAY 09 2016
VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN OK...NERN TX...NWRN
LA...MUCH OF AR...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN NEB/SRN IA SWD INTO
ERN TX...
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS IMMEDIATELY SURROUNDING THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT FROM PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER TO MID MISSOURI
VALLEY...OZARKS AND ARKLATEX. TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENHANCED RISK AREA FROM EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHEASTERN TEXAS INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA.
...SYNOPSIS...
A SHARPLY DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE EWD ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE MID TO LOWER MS VALLEY BY LATE
EVENING...WITH MAIN JET MAX ALOFT EXTENDING FROM ERN TX INTO THE
ARKLATEX BY 00Z THE 10TH. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE SWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES...DEEPENING A SFC TROUGH FROM WRN
OK/KS INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE
UPPER SYSTEM...A BROAD AREA OF SLY 30-40 KT 850 MB FLOW WILL HELP
BRING MOISTURE NWD ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE MS VALLEY WHICH WILL
RESULT IN DESTABILIZATION AND AREAS OF PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.
DESPITE THE RAPID MOTION OF THE SRN PLAINS SHORTWAVE...THE DRYLINE
IS FORECAST TO LAG...LOCATED JUST E OF I-35 BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
ROUGHLY BENEATH THE MIDLEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WITH COLD TEMPERATURES
AND STEEP LAPSE RATES. THE MOIST SECTOR SHOULD BE CHARACTERIZED BY
MID 60S F DEWPOINTS FROM SE OK INTO CNTRL AR...WITH UPPER 60S F
ADVECTING NWD ACROSS ERN TX. THE GREATEST OVERLAP BETWEEN STRONG
INSTABILITY...LIFT...AND ENLARGED HODOGRAPHS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE
ENH RISK AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
...ERN OK AND THE ARKLATEX INTO AR AND FAR SRN MO AND KS...
STRONG HEATING OVER MUCH OF THE REGION AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT
WILL RESULT IN STRONG INSTABILITY FROM ERN TX NWD ACROSS ERN
OK...WRN AR AND KS. EARLY DAY STORMS ARE LIKELY TO EXIST NEAR THE
RED RIVER WHICH WILL THEN SHIFT EWD INTO AR BY AFTERNOON. THIS
ACTIVITY MAY POSE A WIND AND HAIL THREAT FOR THE DURATION...WITH
POSSIBLE OUTFLOW FOCUSING NEW STORMS LATER IN THE DAY. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED BY LATE AFTERNOON...AS
WILL SHEAR PROFILES WHICH WILL CLEARLY FAVOR SUPERCELLS AND SUPPORT
TORNADOES GIVEN DISCRETE STORM MODE. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR
TORNADOES WILL BE FAR ERN OK INTO W CNTRL AR...AND PERHAPS SWD
ACROSS THE ARKLATEX. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS MAY ALSO
MATERIALIZE FARTHER S WITHIN THE MOIST AXIS TOWARD THE SHREVEPORT
VICINITY. ALTHOUGH CONVERGENCE WILL BE WEAK...RAPID MOISTENING AND
CONFLUENCE LINES MAY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE DISCRETE STORMS.
SEVERE STORM CHANCES ARE MORE CONDITIONAL ALONG THE DRYLINE DURING
THE MID AFTERNOON NEAR 21Z OVER CNTRL OK INTO CNTRL KS...BUT SEVERAL
MODELS DO PRODUCE STORMS WHICH WOULD CLEARLY HAVE A LARGE HAIL RISK.
...MO INTO WRN IL...
A DISTURBANCE ALOFT IS FORECAST TO PRECEDE THE MAIN SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...RAPIDLY MOVING NEWD ACROSS MO WITH SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT FALLS
AND LIFT. STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON IN THE
WAKE OF EARLY RAIN/WEAK THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL RESULT IN
DESTABILIZATION AND INCREASING SHEAR PROFILES WITH SRH ON THE ORDER
OF 200-300 M2/S2. WITH A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT IN PLACE...A FEW SEVERE
STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND ALSO A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. HOWEVER...LACK OF STRONG INSTABILITY AND POTENTIAL FOR AIRMASS
CONTAMINATION LENDS UNCERTAINTY TO THIS AREA.
..JEWELL/COOK.. 05/09/2016
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