SPC AC 080600

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0100 AM CDT SUN MAY 08 2016

   VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL KS INTO
   NWRN OK...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NEBRASKA SWD INTO W CNTRL
   TX AND EWD INTO THE MID MO VALLEY...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS TO THE
   RIO GRANDE VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
   SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VERY LARGE HAIL AND A
   FEW TORNADOES ARE ANTICIPATED WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT AREA FROM
   CENTRAL KANSAS INTO NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA BEGINNING LATE AFTERNOON.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES WITH
   EXPANDING AREA OF STRONG SWLY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT FROM NRN MEXICO
   INTO THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS. PRECEDING THE MAIN JET MAX WILL BE A
   LEADING DISTURBANCE MOVING RAPIDLY TOWARD THE I-35 CORRIDOR IN KS/OK
   BY MIDDAY WHICH MAY RESULT IN EARLY ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
   WILL ALSO TEMPORARILY VEER 850 MB WINDS BEFORE THEY RESPOND TO THE
   DEEPENING LOW AND BACK AGAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON.

   AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER SWRN KS
   WITH A DRYLINE ARCING SEWD TO NEAR THE TX PANHANDLE/OK BORDER AT
   00Z...AND CONTINUING SWD INTO NWRN TX WHERE IT WILL STALL AND
   ACTUALLY RETREAT DURING THE EVENING. STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR
   BEHIND THE DRYLINE...WITH UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S F DEWPOINTS
   DEVELOPING TO THE E WHICH WILL RESULT IN A ZONE OF MODERATE
   INSTABILITY. WIND PROFILES WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS ALONG AND E OF THE
   DRYLINE...BUT CAPPING WILL BE A CONCERN TOWARD I-35 FROM CNTRL OK
   INTO TX DUE TO A RELATIVELY COOL BOUNDARY-LAYER.

   ...MUCH OF CNTRL KS INTO NWRN OK AND VICINITY LATE AFTERNOON INTO
   EARLY EVENING...
   THE EXPECTED QUALITY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...EFFECTS OF AN EARLY
   DISTURBANCE ALOFT AND PRECIPITATION...CAPPING AND LACK OF CONSISTENT
   MODEL QPF PROGS CURRENTLY PRECLUDE A MODERATE RISK. HOWEVER...AT
   LEAST ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORMS APPEAR LIKELY DURING A
   SHORT TIME WINDOW FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING FROM CNTRL
   KS INTO NWRN OK.

   SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND LATEST OBSERVED SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE SRN
   PLAINS INDICATE MAINLY 50S F DEWPOINTS AS FAR S AS CNTRL TX...WITH A
   CORRIDOR OF MID 60S F DEWPOINTS ACROSS DEEP S TX AND IMMEDIATELY
   OFFSHORE. ALSO NOTED ON THE 00Z/8TH SOUNDINGS WAS A STRONG CAPPING
   INVERSION. WHILE STRONG SLY FLOW WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION
   THROUGHOUT THE DAY...MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM APPEAR TO BE
   OVER-FORECASTING THE BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE MAGNITUDE GIVEN CURRENT
   OBSERVATIONS. MORE LIKELY...ANY MID 60S F DEWPOINTS THAT DO DEVELOP
   WILL BE SHALLOW/SKIN LAYER...WITH A MEAN MIXED-LAYER DEWPOINT CLOSER
   TO PERHAPS 60-62. THE GFS SOUNDINGS APPEAR TO BE CLOSER TO REALITY
   IN THAT REGARD.

   HEATING MAY ALSO BE LIMITED DUE TO THE EARLY WAVE PASSAGE WITH A N-S
   ORIENTED ZONE OF ELEVATED RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST BY SEVERAL
   MODELS...FOCUSED OVER CNTRL/ERN KS INTO NRN OK. SOME MARGINAL HAIL
   CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THIS ACTIVITY GIVEN COOL TEMPERATURES
   ALOFT.

   BY LATE AFTERNOON...CONVERGENCE SHOULD INCREASE ALONG THE DRYLINE
   FROM WRN KS INTO WRN OK. STRONG HEATING WILL CLEARLY RESULT IN DEEP
   MIXING...AND A NARROW ZONE OF MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND UNCAPPED AIR
   IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. STRONGLY
   VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT AND INCREASING SPEED SHEAR IN THE MID TO
   UPPER LEVELS WILL FAVOR VERY LARGE HAIL. STORM MODE ALSO SUGGESTS A
   FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH STRENGTH PERHAPS DEPENDENT ON
   BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE QUALITY. AT ANY RATE...THESE CELLS SHOULD
   PROGRESS INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BUT A CAPPING INVERSION MAY
   LIMIT THEIR EWD EXTENT TO JUST W OF I-35/N OF I-40 IN OK...AND
   LITTLE IF ANY ACTIVITY FARTHER S INTO NWRN TX. STORMS ARE EXPECTED
   TO BE MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS KS NEAR THE LOW...AND WHERE TEMPERATURES
   WILL BE COOLER ALOFT. OTHER HAILSTORMS ARE LIKELY INTO NEBRASKA IN A
   ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION NEAR WARM FRONT. A FEW CLUSTERS OF STORMS
   COULD PERSIST INTO ERN KS AND WRN MO...WITH A HAIL AND WIND THREAT. 

   ...W CNTRL INTO NWRN TX OVERNIGHT...
   HEIGHT FALLS/COOLING ALOFT WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT AS A SECONDARY
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER SWRN TX. THIS WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT
   EWD WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS AIDED BY A STRONG
   SLY LOW-LEVEL JET. A MIXED STORM MODE APPEARS LIKELY WITH BOTH HAIL
   AND WIND POSSIBLE AS STORMS EVOLVE TOWARD W CNTRL AND NWRN TX.

   ..JEWELL/ROBINSON.. 05/08/2016

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