Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
SPC AC 071629
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1129 AM CDT SAT MAY 07 2016
VALID 071630Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE OH
VALLEY...
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY.
...OHIO VALLEY INTO CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS PRESENT TODAY OVER MUCH
OF THE OHIO VALLEY. A PLUME OF WARM LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES HAS
ADVECTED INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST...RESULTING IN RATHER STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THESE LAPSE RATES...COMBINED WITH
PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND RISING DEWPOINTS INTO THE 50S WILL
YIELD AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG. MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS
SUGGEST THAT A CLUSTER OF FAST-MOVING STORMS WILL FORM OVER PARTS OF
OHIO/EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
PARTS OF WEST VIRGINIA. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL IN THE STRONGER CELLS. THERE IS A
CHANCE A FEW OF THE STORMS CAN MAINTAIN INTENSITY OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND INTO PARTS OF VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA THIS EVENING BEFORE
WEAKENING.
...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
THE FORECAST FOR THE HIGH PLAINS REGION REMAINS ON TRACK. STORMS
ARE LIKELY TO FORM OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO NEAR DEN FIRST...THEN
BUILD EASTWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. BACKED LOW
LEVEL WINDS AND INCREASING MOISTURE OVER PARTS OF THIS REGION WILL
SUPPORT A RISK OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND A FEW
TORNADOES. VERY LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE. OTHER MORE ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS MAY FORM ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON. FROM THERE SOUTHWARD...WEAK FORCING SHOULD GREATLY LIMIT
THE NUMBER OF DRYLINE STORMS THAT CAN FORM.
..HART/BUNTING.. 05/07/2016
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
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