Corpus Christi, TX...Laredo, TX...Brownsville, TX...Harlingen, TX...Victoria, TX...
MARGINAL
14,150
3,084,812
San Antonio, TX...Beaumont, TX...Lake Charles, LA...League City, TX...Port Arthur, TX...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 %
47,896
3,576,329
Corpus Christi, TX...Laredo, TX...Brownsville, TX...Beaumont, TX...Harlingen, TX...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
34,041
2,252,282
Corpus Christi, TX...Laredo, TX...Brownsville, TX...Harlingen, TX...Victoria, TX...
5 %
17,730
2,503,242
San Antonio, TX...Beaumont, TX...Lake Charles, LA...League City, TX...Port Arthur, TX...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
40,417
2,618,600
Corpus Christi, TX...Laredo, TX...Brownsville, TX...Harlingen, TX...Victoria, TX...
5 %
8,529
1,930,864
San Antonio, TX...New Braunfels, TX...Schertz, TX...Lake Jackson, TX...Seguin, TX...
SPC AC 181226
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0726 AM CDT MON APR 18 2016
VALID 181300Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS S TX THROUGH THIS
EVENING...
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS EXTENDING E OF THE SLIGHT RISK
AREA TO MOUTH OF THE SABINE RIVER...
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH LATE EVENING.
...S TX THROUGH LATE EVENING...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH RIDGING TO PERSIST OVER THE PAC COAST AND FROM THE OH
VALLEY TO THE SE STATES...WHILE A CLOSED LOW MEANDERS IN BETWEEN
OVER CO/WY AND THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS. THE WEAKENING SYNOPTIC
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW EXTENDS FROM ERN NEB TO CENTRAL OK
AND CENTRAL TX...BUT THE EFFECTIVE FRONT IS A CONGLOMERATE OF
OUTFLOWS CLOSER TO THE I-10 CORRIDOR IN TX.
THE FLASH-FLOOD-PRODUCING MCS IN THE HOUSTON AREA HAS FINALLY
GENERATED A SUBSTANTIAL COLD POOL WHICH WILL HELP THE CONVECTION
SPREAD SEWD TO THE UPPER TX COAST THIS MORNING. OUTFLOW EXTENDS W
INTO THE SAN ANTONIO AREA...WHERE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY. GIVEN THE RICH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE TO THE S OF THE OUTFLOWS...AND MAINTENANCE OF 20-30 KT SLY
INFLOW THROUGH THE DAY...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT MORE THUNDERSTORM
CLUSTERS WILL SPREAD SEWD ACROSS S CENTRAL TX TO THE MIDDLE TX COAST
THROUGH THIS EVENING. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
RISKS WITH THESE CLUSTERS...IN ADDITION TO THE FLOOD THREAT.
OTHER THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
NEAR THE RIO GRANDE...WHERE SOMEWHAT STRONGER LOW-LEVEL AND
DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR AND MLCAPE AOA 2000 J/KG WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. THE MORE DISCRETE INITIAL STORMS WILL
POSE A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL...WITH DAMAGING GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS
DEEP S TX AS CONVECTION POTENTIALLY GROWS UPSCALE INTO ANOTHER
CLUSTER BY THIS EVENING.
..THOMPSON/MOSIER.. 04/18/2016
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
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