Lubbock, TX...Garden City, KS...North Platte, NE...Plainview, TX...Hereford, TX...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Tampa, FL...St. Petersburg, FL...Lubbock, TX...Midland, TX...Spring Hill, FL...
SPC AC 151959
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0259 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
VALID 152000Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE TX AND OK PANHANDLES
INTO SERN CO AND SWRN KS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE SRN AND
CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF ECNTRL
THROUGH SERN FL...
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE CNTRL AND
SRN HIGH PLAINS...
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CNTRL THROUGH SERN FL...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHER SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS
PARTS OF CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTHERN FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.
...DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH ONLY MODEST ADJUSTMENTS MADE
INCLUDING EXPANDING SLIGHT RISK A BIT FARTHER NORTH INTO WRN NEB.
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE IN PROCESS OF DEVELOPING OVER ECNTRL FL.
OTHER STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE CNTRL
AND SRN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES
TO DESTABILIZE AND AS FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
SPEED MAX APPROACHES THIS REGION FROM THE SW.
..DIAL.. 04/15/2016
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2016/
...NEB/CO/KS/OK/TX...
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN US
TODAY...WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. ONE SUCH TROUGH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED
ALONG THE AZ/NM BORDER AND IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE HIGH PLAINS OF
EASTERN NM/WEST TX INTO PARTS OF CO/KS/NEB LATER TODAY. STRONG
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS IN THESE AREAS ARE HELPING TO
MOISTEN/DESTABILIZE THIS CORRIDOR WITH DEWPOINTS RISING THROUGH THE
LOW/MID 50S. VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP ALSO SHOWS THINNING CLOUD
COVER...WHICH WILL HELP TO STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES THIS
AFTERNOON. THE RESULT WILL BE AN AXIS OF WEAK CAP AND LIKELY
CONVECTIVE INITIATION BY MID AFTERNOON FROM EASTERN CO INTO THE
CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE.
PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT STORMS WILL FORM AFTER 2PM ALONG AN
AXIS FROM EASTERN CO INTO THE WESTERN TX PANHANDLE. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS IN THIS AREA SUGGEST SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR AND STEEP
LAPSE RATES TO PROMOTE SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL
/SOME SIGNIFICANT HAIL POSSIBLE/. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A MORE ROBUST
TORNADO THREAT INVOLVES DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE MID 50S. IF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS GREATER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...THE TORNADO THREAT
COULD BE MORE SUBSTANTIAL WITH A THREAT LASTING WELL AFTER DARK OVER
PARTS OF THE CO HIGH PLAINS...SOUTHWEST KS...AND THE OK/TX
PANHANDLES.
...FL...
AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...AND WILL AFFECT THE FL PENINSULA LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
RELATIVELY STRONG HEATING AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S ARE
PRESENT OVER THIS REGION...WHERE AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE OVER 2000 J/KG. A COMBINATION OF COOL TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES...AND THE APPROACHING
UPPER FORCING SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE ORGANIZED STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS TODAY. THEREFORE...HAVE UPGRADED PARTS OF THE EASTERN FL
PENINSULA TO SLIGHT RISK...PRIMARILY FOR THE POTENTIAL OF LARGE
HAIL.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
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