SPC AC 101630

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1130 AM CDT SUN APR 10 2016

   VALID 101630Z - 111200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN
   NORTH TEXAS AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
   CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN KS/SWRN MO SWWD INTO
   THE TX PANHANDLE/WRN N TX...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF S TX/THE RIO
   GRANDE VALLEY...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK
   AREAS...FROM MO SWWD ACROSS OK...AND SWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN AND
   CENTRAL TX...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON
   INTO TONIGHT FROM PARTS OF TEXAS INTO MUCH OF OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEAST
   KANSAS...AND MISSOURI. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN...BUT
   DAMAGING WINDS AND A COUPLE TORNADOES ALSO COULD OCCUR.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A PROGRESSIVE SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE U.S.
   THIS PERIOD.  IN THE NRN STREAM...A LARGE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
   DEPARTING THE NERN U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE A SECOND TROUGH
   EXPANDS SEWD INTO THE N CENTRAL U.S./GREAT LAKES REGION.  MEANWHILE
   IN THE SRN STREAM...A LOW/TROUGH WILL WEAKEN GRADUALLY AS IT MOVES
   ENEWD ACROSS THE DESERT SW/SRN ROCKIES AND BEGINS TO EMERGE INTO THE
   SRN HIGH PLAINS OVERNIGHT.  MEANWHILE...A SECOND FEATURE DIGGING
   SEWD OFF THE CA COAST WILL HELP MAINTAIN THE BROADER CYCLONIC
   CURVATURE -- ACROSS THE SWRN AND EVENTUALLY THE S CENTRAL U.S. --
   WITHIN THE SRN STREAM OF FLOW.

   AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE
   PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL LIKELY EXTEND
   FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION SWWD ACROSS IL/MO TO THE OK/KS
   BORDER REGION.  MEANWHILE...A DRYLINE WILL MIX EWD ACROSS THE SRN
   PLAINS...AND SHOULD EXTEND FROM WRN OK TO THE TRANSPECOS
   REGION/PERMIAN BASIN OF TX DURING THE AFTERNOON.  THESE TWO
   BOUNDARIES SHOULD BE FOCI FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT LATE
   THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

   ...SERN KS/MO INTO MUCH OF OK AND WRN/CENTRAL TX...
   LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS HEATING/MIXING GRADUALLY
   COMMENCING ACROSS W TX/WRN OK...SE OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND E
   OF THE DRYLINE.  WHILE AIRMASS REMAINS CAPPED -- DUE TO SUBSIDENCE
   ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT-WAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SWRN
   U.S. UPPER LOW AND ENEWD ADVECTION OF AN EML...PERSISTENT
   HEATING/MIXING AND EVENTUAL HEIGHT FALLS WILL ALLOW CAP TO WEAKEN BY
   LATE AFTERNOON.

   GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE EML AND MODEST
   /UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S/ DEWPOINTS LIKELY TO BE MAINTAINED ACROSS WRN
   OK/W CENTRAL TX AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE BY PERSISTENT SLY LOW-LEVEL
   FLOW...EXPECT LATE AFTERNOON MIXED-LAYER CAPE VALUES TO INCREASE
   INTO THE 1500 TO LOCALLY 2500 J/KG RANGE.  AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
   INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA...WEAK CONVERGENCE INVOF THE DRYLINE --
   AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN W OF THE RIO GRANDE OVER NRN MEXICO --
   SHOULD LEAD TO ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE 20-22Z TIME
   FRAME.  DEVELOPMENT SHOULD ALSO OCCUR INVOF THE SWD-ADVANCING COLD
   FRONT SHORTLY THEREAFTER...AND GIVEN FAVORABLY VEERING/INCREASING
   FLOW WITH HEIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE WARM SECTOR...INITIAL STORM MODE
   WILL LIKELY BE SUPERCELLULAR.  MODEST SURFACE DEWPOINTS SUGGEST A
   RATHER DEEP/WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...AND THUS HIGHER-BASED STORMS
   WHICH SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL TORNADO RISK.  LARGE HAIL WILL LIKELY BE
   THE PRIMARY RISK...ALONG WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.  STORMS SHOULD
   GROW UPSCALE WITH TIME INTO CLUSTERS/LINE SEGMENTS FROM WRN N TX
   ENEWD ACROSS OK...EVENTUALLY SPREADING SERN KS/WRN MO THROUGH THE
   EVENING INVOF THE SAGGING COLD FRONT...ALONG WITH CONTINUED
   HAIL/WIND RISK.  FARTHER S...STORMS MAY ALSO GROW UPSCALE AS THEY
   MOVE EWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MEXICO AND ACROSS THE RIO
   GRANDE...WHERE LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
   POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

   ..GOSS/COOK.. 04/10/2016

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