Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
SPC AC 151944
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0244 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016
VALID 152000Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NERN MO ACROSS MUCH OF
CNTRL AND NRN IL...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NERN MO AND ERN IA EWD
INTO SWRN MI AND NRN IND...
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK
AREA AND EXTENDING INTO WRN OH...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI...AND STORMS WILL SUBSEQUENTLY SPREAD
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS TO
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT. A FEW TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL
WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHILE THE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND RISK WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT.
...NERN MO...ERN IA...MUCH OF IL...NRN IND...SWRN MI...SRN WI...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW CU DEVELOPING ALONG THE
DEVELOPING COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE TROUGH FROM NERN MO INTO ERN
IA. FARTHER DOWNSTREAM...BILLOW CLOUDS WERE NOTED BENEATH A CAPPING
INVERSION ACROSS MUCH OF NRN IL...NWRN IND...AND FAR ERN IA.
ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR VIA BACKED SFC WINDS EXIST IN THIS AREA.
MEANWHILE...SFC DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO RISE AND ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR AND ARE NOW APPROACHING 60 F.
HAVE EXPANDED THE ENH AREA NEWD AND SEWD TO BETTER OVERLAP WITH THE
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR AREA...AND TO ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE TAIL END
STORM THAT MAY EVENTUALLY FORM JUST N-NE OF THE ST. LOUIS AS
DEPICTED BY MULTIPLE HIGH-RES MODELS.
FOR MORE INFORMATION...SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION #0216 VALID UNTIL
2030Z.
..JEWELL.. 03/15/2016
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016/
...MID MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON TO LOWER MI/INDIANA TONIGHT...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE KS/MO BORDER WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST TOWARDS SOUTHERN WI BY 12Z WED. SUBSTANTIAL DEEPENING WILL
OCCUR IN RESPONSE TO ASCENT WITHIN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 100 KT
MID/UPPER-LEVEL JET THAT WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE MID-MS VALLEY
REGION. IN RESPONSE TO THIS SCENARIO LOW/MID-LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL
STRENGTHEN...RESULTING IN A FAVORABLY-SHEARED ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE
STORMS AND THE NORTHWARD TRANSPORT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /SURFACE
DEW POINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S/ BY AFTERNOON.
SEVERE STORMS APPEAR LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN THE 20-22Z TIME FRAME NEAR
THE SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHEAST MO...AND THEN MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS
WEST-CENTRAL/NORTHWEST IL DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS AREA SHOW STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG...ALONG WITH RAPIDLY
INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES. THERE APPEARS TO BE A CORRIDOR
OVER NORTHEAST MO...SOUTHEAST IA...AND NORTHERN IL WHERE PARAMETERS
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL
AND A FEW TORNADOES. THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TORNADO
RISK REMAINS THE DEGREE AND DEPTH OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT
PROXIMITY TO THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW AND LOCAL ENHANCEMENT OF LOW
LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO OFFSET THERMODYNAMIC
WEAKNESSES.
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING...AFFECTING PARTS
OF SOUTHERN WI/NORTHEAST IL/NORTHERN IND AND PERHAPS REACHING
SOUTHWEST LOWER MI BEFORE WEAKENING OVERNIGHT.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
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