Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
SPC AC 141801
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0101 PM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
VALID 141630Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF GA/TN/VA/NC/SC...
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE EASTERN
STATES...
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NEB/IA/MO...
...SUMMARY...
A RISK FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND IS FORECAST ACROSS
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIAN STATES AND CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. A MARGINAL THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL MAY ALSO DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY.
...NC/SC...
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A PROGRESSIVE COMPACT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS KY/TN. THIS FEATURE WILL AFFECT THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION AND CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PROVIDING
AMPLE LIFT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS
CONSIDERABLE HEATING IS OCCUR IN MUCH OF THIS REGION...WHERE SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. COOLING MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...YIELDING MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG.
A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER EAST TN AND NORTHERN GA
IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY BY EARLY AFTERNOON...TRACKING EASTWARD INTO
WESTERN NC AND NORTHERN SC. OTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY FORM OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN NC AND SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAY PERSIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS
AFTER DARK...POSSIBLY REACHING PARTS OF EASTERN NC BY MIDNIGHT.
...OH/KY/WV...
STRONG HEATING IS OCCURRING OVER PARTS OF EASTERN KY/SOUTHERN
OH/WESTERN WV. DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A RISK OF HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE
STRONGER CELLS.
...NEB/IA/MO...
MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING OVER CENTRAL NEB...IN ADVANCE OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW CROSSING THE ROCKIES. MARGINAL INSTABILITY
WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...THE STRONGER CELLS
MAY PRODUCE HAIL OVERNIGHT AS THE ACTIVITY SPREADS EASTWARD INTO
PARTS OF IA AND NORTHERN MO.
..HART/MOSIER.. 03/14/2016
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
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