Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
77,806
4,786,920
Memphis, TN...Little Rock, AR...Fort Smith, AR...Jackson, TN...North Little Rock, AR...
Tulsa, OK...Shreveport, LA...Broken Arrow, OK...Fayetteville, AR...Bossier City, LA...
SPC AC 131702
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1202 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016
VALID 131630Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF AR AND EXTREME
NORTHWEST MS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER MS
VALLEY...
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER MS
VALLEY...
CORRECTED FOR NDFD GRID ERROR
...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY FROM SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SUPERCELLS WITH A FEW TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL...AND DAMAGING GUSTS
ARE EXPECTED.
...ARKLATEX INTO LOWER/MID MS VALLEY...
MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING SKIES ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX AND LOWER MS VALLEY THIS MORNING...HELPING TO
WARM/DESTABILIZE THE REGION. A COMPACT SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED OVER
SOUTHERN OK. THIS LOW WILL TRACK EASTWARD INTO AR THIS
EVENING...WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS TO THE EAST OF THE
LOW DRAWING 60S DEWPOINTS NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF AR/TN/MS. THIS
WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING INSTABILITY...LEADING TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT STORMS WILL INTENSIFY BY MID AFTERNOON
OVER PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL AR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH...AND NEAR THE SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THE COMBINATION OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...INCREASING
VERTICAL SHEAR...AND SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL POSE A RISK
OF SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL. A CONSENSUS OF 12Z
CAM SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A CORRIDOR OF GREATER CONCERN FOR MORE INTENSE
STORMS AND TORNADOES WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST AR AND EXTREME
NORTHWEST MS. THIS AREA HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE ENHANCED RISK...AND A
SIGNIFICANT TORNADO RISK AREA HAS BEEN INCLUDED. STORMS WILL LIKELY
LOSE INTENSITY A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET AS THEY TRACK ACROSS
NORTHERN MS AND WEST TN.
..HART.. 03/13/2016
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
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