The SPC is forecasting ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic States later today and tonight....
Please read
the latest public statement about this event. View What is a Watch? clip.
Baltimore, MD...Washington, DC...Virginia Beach, VA...Norfolk, VA...Greensboro, NC...
5 %
61,999
20,078,354
Philadelphia, PA...Charlotte, NC...Cape Coral, FL...Toms River, NJ...Columbia, SC...
2 %
116,160
37,506,525
New York, NY...Jacksonville, FL...Tampa, FL...Pittsburgh, PA...Cincinnati, OH...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
110,304
36,466,872
Philadelphia, PA...Baltimore, MD...Charlotte, NC...Washington, DC...Virginia Beach, VA...
5 %
159,168
42,339,676
New York, NY...Jacksonville, FL...Pittsburgh, PA...Newark, NJ...Jersey City, NJ...
SPC AC 241635
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1035 AM CST WED FEB 24 2016
VALID 241630Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SE VA AND CNTRL/ERN NC...
...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES AND CAROLINAS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND
CAROLINAS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CNTRL FL...
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SRN NEW ENGLAND TO OH VALLEY TO
FL...
...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WITH TORNADOES...A FEW OF WHICH SHOULD BE
STRONG...AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES INTO THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
...CAROLINAS TO THE NORTHEAST...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A
PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE BAND ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPSTATE CAROLINAS
INTO E-CNTRL GA. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE TIED THE PRIMARY LOBE
OF MID-LEVEL DCVA OVERSPREADING THE REGION AHEAD OF THE LOWER OH
VALLEY UPPER TROUGH. BREAKS IN CLOUD COVERAGE ARE OCCURRING
IMMEDIATELY OF THIS PRE-FRONTAL BAND WHILE THE DOWNSTREAM WEDGE AIR
MASS HAS RAPIDLY MODIFIED ACROSS THE PIEDMONT REGION. LATEST CAMS
LARGELY SUPPORT THIS PRE-FRONTAL BAND INTENSIFYING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES.
WITH AN INTENSE WIND FIELD SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA INDUCING
ENLARGED CYCLONIC HODOGRAPHS...SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS APPEAR
PROBABLE OVER THE PIEDMONT AND ADJACENT COASTAL PLAIN OF
NC/VA...ALONG AND EAST OF THE ROBUST BAROCLINIC ZONE. A FEW STRONG
TORNADOES SHOULD DEVELOP WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR. SEE MCDS 141/142 FOR
ADDITIONAL SHORT-TERM FORECAST INFORMATION.
FARTHER N...SEVERE PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN FURTHER
INCREASED/EXPANDED ACROSS THE MD/PA REGION WITH THE EXPECTATION FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO A RAPIDLY PROGRESSING
SQUALL LINE. WHILE INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN WEAK -- AND POSSIBLY
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ABOVE A SHALLOW COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER...STRENGTH
OF THE WIND FIELD SUGGESTS THAT WINDS APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING
SEVERE LEVELS WILL OCCUR AT LEAST LOCALLY. THE THREAT ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA WILL END FROM W TO E THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT
MOVES OFF THE COAST.
..GRAMS/COOK.. 02/24/2016
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
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