SPC AC 110756

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0156 AM CST FRI DEC 11 2015

   VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE UPPER TX COAST AND
   LOWER MS VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE EMBEDDED ALONG A SQUALL
   LINE AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY.

   ...UPPER TX COAST/LOWER MS VALLEY...

   WRN U.S. TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EJECT ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS/TX REGION
   DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS UPSTREAM HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL IN RESPONSE
   TO DIGGING TROUGH ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST.  STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW
   ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL UNDOUBTEDLY AID CONVECTION
   ALONG/NEAR FRONTAL ZONE AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS EAST TX INTO THE
   LOWER MS VALLEY.  EXPANSIVE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION/PRECIPITATION IS
   EXPECTED TO SUPPRESS DESTABILIZATION AND POOR LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT
   UPDRAFT STRENGTH WITH TSTMS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION.  IN
   FACT...MUCH OF THIS CONVECTION MAY NOT PRODUCE LIGHTNING DUE TO WEAK
   LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT.  LATEST THINKING IS A FORCED BAND OF
   CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING AT SUNRISE SUNDAY AND THIS ACTIVITY
   SHOULD PROPAGATE ACROSS LA INTO SRN MS BY EARLY EVENING.  WHILE
   FORECAST INSTABILITY SUGGESTS SQUALL LINE WILL BE MOSTLY
   SUB-SEVERE...SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS WITH THE MOST
   ORGANIZED CONVECTION.

   ..DARROW.. 12/11/2015

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z