New Orleans, LA...Baton Rouge, LA...Mobile, AL...Jackson, MS...Metairie, LA...
Probabilistic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 3 Prob. Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
69,574
5,866,675
New Orleans, LA...Baton Rouge, LA...Mobile, AL...Jackson, MS...Metairie, LA...
SPC AC 010828
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 AM CST THU JAN 01 2015
VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST AND LOWER MS VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI.
...SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXIST OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AS A
SHORTWAVE OVER THE SRN PLAINS AT 12Z SAT WEAKENS AS IT LIFTS RAPIDLY
NE TOWARDS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION SAT NIGHT. A SECONDARY
IMPULSE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THRU THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INTO THE
SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS. A SFC LOW WILL LIFT NEWD FROM THE WRN GULF
COAST/LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SAT AS THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT EXTENDS SWD THROUGH THE OH/TN VALLEY REGION TO THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST BY 12Z SUN. A WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS BY SAT AFTN.
...CENTRAL GULF COAST/LOWER MS VALLEY...
TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING SAT MORNING ALONG THE COLD FRONT...AND
POSSIBLY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF LA/MS AS
MODEST HEIGHT FALLS/FORCING FOR ASCENT LIFTS NE AND GLANCES THE
AREA. LOW/MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY AND
RESULT IN 50-60 KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ORIENTED LARGELY PARALLEL TO
THE FRONT. A MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER WITH LOWER-MID 60S SFC DEW
POINTS WILL EXPAND NWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND RESULT IN
MUCAPE OF 500 TO LOCALLY 1000 J/KG. A PRIMARILY LINEAR CONVECTIVE
MODE IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY WITH A RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS/QLCS TORNADOES.
PRIMARY UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE EXTENT OF THE SVR THREAT INCLUDE
THE LIKELIHOOD THAT THE STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST AND REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE MARGINAL RISK AREA...AND
THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION IN THE WARM SECTOR GIVEN WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY. GIVEN THESE UNCERTAINTIES...WILL INCLUDE
A MARGINAL RISK WITH THIS OUTLOOK.
..BUNTING.. 01/01/2015
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z
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