Jan 2, 2015 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Jan 2 06:59:12 UTC 2015 (20150102 0700Z Day 2 shapefile | 20150102 0700Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20150102 0700 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 32,367 3,412,946 New Orleans, LA...Mobile, AL...Metairie, LA...Gulfport, MS...Kenner, LA...
MARGINAL 39,677 2,811,413 Baton Rouge, LA...Jackson, MS...Lafayette, LA...Pensacola, FL...Meridian, MS...
Probabilistic Graphic
20150102 0700 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 32,581 3,418,730 New Orleans, LA...Mobile, AL...Metairie, LA...Gulfport, MS...Kenner, LA...
5 % 39,404 2,797,705 Baton Rouge, LA...Jackson, MS...Lafayette, LA...Pensacola, FL...Meridian, MS...
   SPC AC 020659

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1259 AM CST FRI JAN 02 2015

   VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST LA...SOUTHEAST
   MS...AND FAR SOUTHWEST AL...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLGT RISK AREA
   ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY ACROSS
   SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI...AND EXTREME
   SOUTHWEST ALABAMA.  DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO THREAT WILL BE THE
   PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE STRONGEST FORCING
   FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF
   COAST SATURDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS NORTH TX/OK/KS
   SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  THIS FEATURE THEN WILL ACCELERATE NEWD TO THE
   LOWER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT.  A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK FROM
   NEAR THE ARKLATEX REGION AT 12Z SATURDAY NEWD INTO THE MID MS
   VALLEY...BEFORE FAIRLY RAPID DEEPENING IS FORECAST AS THIS LOW MOVES
   INTO LOWER MI/LAKE HURON LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.  A COLD FRONT TRAILING
   SWWD FROM THE LOW AND WARM SECTOR EXPECTED INTO THE SLIGHT RISK AREA
   WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS REGIONS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS PERIOD. 
   AT 12Z SATURDAY...THE COLD FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM SWRN AR TO THE
   TX COAST.  THIS FRONT WILL ADVANCE E/NEWD ACROSS THE OH/TN AND LOWER
   MS VALLEYS...AND SHOULD EXTEND FROM UPPER OH VALLEY TO THE SRN
   APPALACHIANS TO NEAR MOBILE BY 12Z SUNDAY.

   ...LA/MS/WRN AND SWRN AL/FAR WRN FL PANHANDLE...
   HEIGHT FALLS WILL REMAIN QUITE WEAK ACROSS SRN LA TO SRN AL AND WRN
   FL PANHANDLE AS STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT REMAINS NORTH OF THE
   SLIGHT AND MARGINAL RISK AREAS...ALONG THE TRACK OF THE SRN PLAINS
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  DESPITE THE LACK OF GREATER FORCING FOR ASCENT
   AND GENERALLY WEAK LAPSE RATES...A POLEWARD RETURN OF MOISTURE /PW
   OF 1.5-1.75 INCHES AND SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S/ IS
   EXPECTED ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA.  THIS LATTER FACTOR WILL
   SUPPORT MUCAPE OF 500 TO AROUND 1000 J/KG PER NAM/GFS FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS.

   TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING SATURDAY MORNING ALONG THE COLD
   FRONT...AND POSSIBLY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF
   LA/MS.  AN INCREASE IN DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELDS...NEARLY PARALLEL TO
   THE COLD FRONT...WILL TEND TO RESULT IN LINEAR FORCING FOR A
   CONTINUED LINE OF STORMS SPREADING EWD SATURDAY.  THE 00Z NAM 4 KM
   DID INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW DISCRETE STORMS IN THE WARM
   SECTOR...AND GIVEN STRONG DEEP-LAYER AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...SUPERCELL
   STRUCTURES WILL BE POSSIBLE.  DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO THREAT
   WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE RISKS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SLIGHT-RISK
   AREA WHERE HIGHER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL ENHANCE THIS POTENTIAL.

   ..PETERS.. 01/02/2015

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z