Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
30 %
47,178
2,320,098
Little Rock, AR...North Little Rock, AR...Pine Bluff, AR...Monroe, LA...Conway, AR...
SPC AC 171626
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1026 AM CST TUE NOV 17 2015
VALID 171630Z - 181200Z
...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF AR AND LA INTO
WRN MS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE ENH RISK FROM
SERN TX AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE OZARK PLATEAU TO THE CNTRL GULF
COAST...
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLGT RISK OVER
THE SAME GENERAL AREAS...
...SUMMARY...
A SQUALL LINE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION AND THROUGH THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE AREA OF GREATEST CONCERN FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES IS OVER PARTS OF
ARKANSAS AND LOUISIANA AND WESTERN MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING.
...SYNOPSIS...
AN INTENSE MID-LEVEL LOW OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WILL PIVOT NEWD
INTO ERN PORTIONS OF NEB AND KS WHILE AN ATTENDANT 100+ KT JET
STREAK AT 500 MB ADVANCES FROM THE CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS INTO
THE MS VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...A PACIFIC FRONT PRESENTLY
STRETCHING FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER CNTRL KS SSEWD INTO
CNTRL TX WILL PROGRESS EWD TOWARD THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MS VALLEYS.
MEANWHILE THE KS SURFACE LOW WILL FURTHER DEEPEN AND SUBSEQUENTLY
UNDERGO OCCLUSION AS IT ACCELERATES NNEWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY.
...OZARK PLATEAU INTO ERN TX AND EWD INTO THE CNTRL GULF STATES...
A WIDESPREAD AREA OF PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ONGOING AS OF MID MORNING FROM THE OZARK PLATEAU INTO ERN
TX...DRIVEN HEAT AND MOISTURE FLUXES ALONG A 50-60+ KT SLY LLJ AND
THE LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS/DCVA PRECEDING THE SRN
PLAINS UPPER LOW. THESE SAME FORCING MECHANISMS WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT EWD TOWARD THE MS VALLEY TODAY...COMBINING WITH THE CONTINUED
INFLUX OF A VERY MOIST AIR MASS FROM OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
FILTERED SUNSHINE TO SUPPORT THE GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE WIDESPREAD MORNING CONVECTION. GIVEN
THE CO-LOCATION OF A MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH
STRONG LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR
EMBEDDED SUPERCELL AND LEWP STRUCTURES WITH AN ASSOCIATED RISK FOR
DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES.
ADDITIONALLY...VARIOUS CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST
THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL BANDS OF SEMI-DISCRETE STORMS FORMING
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG CONFLUENCE ZONES OVER ERN PORTIONS OF LA AND AR
INTO WRN MS...AHEAD OF THE MAIN QLCS. SHOULD THIS SCENARIO UNFOLD
AS FORECAST...A MORE SUBSTANTIAL TORNADO THREAT WOULD EXIST AND THIS
IS ADDRESSED WITH THE 10 PERCENT TORNADO PROBABILITY CONTOUR.
EXPECT THE EVOLVING QLCS TO ADVANCE EWD THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING BEFORE REACHING ERN MS AND WRN AL
LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE VERY INTENSE WIND FIELDS
COUPLED WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL MAINTAIN THE RISK FOR
ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SQUALL LINE.
..MEAD/COOK.. 11/17/2015
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
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