Sep 25, 2015 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Sep 25 00:53:29 UTC 2015 (20150925 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20150925 0100Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20150925 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20150925 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20150925 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20150925 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 250053

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0753 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2015

   VALID 250100Z - 251200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT FROM FAR WEST TEXAS
   NORTH NORTHEASTWARD TO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
   WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE GULF COAST...FLORIDA AND ALONG THE
   SOUTHERN ATLANTIC SEABOARD. NO SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED THROUGH
   TONIGHT ACROSS THE UNITED STATES.

   AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE WRN STATES
   TONIGHT AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVES NWWD ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF COAST
   STATES. AT THE SFC...A LOW OVER ERN NEB WILL TRACK SLOWLY SWD
   TONIGHT. A MOIST AIRMASS IN THE CNTRL PLAINS AND LOW-LEVEL
   CONVERGENCE NEAR THE SFC LOW MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
   POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD ALONG A
   CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM FAR WEST TX INTO FAR ERN NM AND
   THE TX PANHANDLE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO OCCUR TONIGHT ALONG
   THE GULF COAST...FLORIDA AND IN THE SRN ATLANTIC SEABOARD WHERE SFC
   DEWPOINTS NEAR THE COAST WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S F AND
   MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP IN A FEW AREAS.

   ..BROYLES.. 09/25/2015

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z