Omaha, NE...Sioux Falls, SD...Sioux City, IA...Council Bluffs, IA...Fremont, NE...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
65,906
1,584,215
Omaha, NE...Sioux Falls, SD...Sioux City, IA...Council Bluffs, IA...Fremont, NE...
SPC AC 221609
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1109 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2015
VALID 221630Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL WILL AFFECT NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON. LATER TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA...AND
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...POSING A RISK OF HAIL.
...NORTHEAST NEB...
A SMALL CLUSTER OF INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS IS AFFECTING NORTHEAST
NEB...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. WATER VAPOR LOOPS HINT AT A MINOR
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION...BUT VERY LITTLE
MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS SUSTAINED VIGOROUS CONVECTION IN THIS AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE ADDED THIS REGION TO MARGINAL RISK FOR ONGOING
STORMS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN HOW LONG THE THREAT WILL LAST IS LOW.
...EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO WESTERN MN...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT OVER PARTS OF EASTERN
SD/ND...SPREADING INTO WESTERN MN. THIS WILL OCCUR IN A REGION OF
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ALONG/NORTH OF A RETREATING WARM
FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS AREA SHOW MODERATE ELEVATED
CAPE...AND SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES FOR ROTATING STORMS.
THE STRONGER CELLS IN THIS SCENARIO WILL LIKELY POSE A RISK OF
HAIL...MAINLY AFTER 06Z.
..HART/PICCA.. 09/22/2015
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
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