Colorado Springs, CO...Wichita, KS...St. Louis, MO...Des Moines, IA...Amarillo, TX...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
66,178
1,184,019
Lincoln, NE...St. Joseph, MO...Manhattan, KS...Grand Island, NE...Kearney, NE...
2 %
215,966
9,447,274
Denver, CO...Kansas City, MO...Omaha, NE...Aurora, CO...Des Moines, IA...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
30 %
41,127
1,712,900
Kansas City, MO...Lincoln, NE...Kansas City, KS...Topeka, KS...St. Joseph, MO...
15 %
161,601
5,807,812
Denver, CO...Omaha, NE...Aurora, CO...Overland Park, KS...Olathe, KS...
5 %
310,383
11,507,559
Colorado Springs, CO...Wichita, KS...St. Louis, MO...Des Moines, IA...Amarillo, TX...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Colorado Springs, CO...Wichita, KS...St. Louis, MO...Des Moines, IA...Amarillo, TX...
SPC AC 041601
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
ISSUED BY 15TH OWS SCOTT AIR FORCE BASE IL
1101 AM CDT THU JUN 04 2015
VALID 041630Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF SRN NEB...NRN
KS...SWRN IA...AND NWRN MO...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE N CNTRL HIGH PLNS ESE
INTO THE LWR MO VLY...
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE HIGH PLNS E INTO PARTS
OF THE MID MS VLY...
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NV...
...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR FROM PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
...SYNOPTIC SETUP...
MINIMAL CHANGE IN THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN EXPECTED OVER THE LWR 48
THROUGH FRI. CA LOW/TROUGH WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY REMOVED FROM THE
MAIN BELT OF THE WLYS AS IT SETTLES FARTHER SSE ACROSS THAT
STATE...WHILE RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE SRN/CNTRL PLNS AND WEAK TROUGH
PROGRESSES SLOWLY E ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES
WILL ADVANCE ENE ACROSS THE CNTRL PLNS IN THE BAND OF FLOW TOPPING
THE RIDGE...BUT HEIGHTS OVERALL WILL RISE ACROSS THAT REGION AS THE
RIDGE AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF CA TROUGH.
AT LWR LVLS...WEAK COLD FRONT ADVANCING SE ACROSS THE N CNTRL
PLNS/UPR MS VLY WILL REINFORCE EXISTING FRONTAL ZONE/COMPOSITE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLNS ESE INTO NRN
KS. THE REINFORCED BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STRONG
TO SVR STORMS LATER TODAY THROUGH TNGT.
...CNTRL/NRN HIGH PLNS ESE INTO MID/LWR MO VLY TODAY/TNGT...
ONGOING SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WAA TSTMS OVER NERN KS AND NW MO SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY...WITH A DIMINISHING RISK FOR ISOLATED
HAIL AND PERHAPS LOCALLY DMGG WIND. RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OVER
THE LWR PLNS...AND LIGHT ELY UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE HIGH
PLNS...SHOULD SUPPORT NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CNTRL PLNS
REGION WITH SFC HEATING LATE THIS AFTN.
MOISTURE OVER THE REGION HAS SOMEWHAT INCREASED RELATIVE TO RECENT
DAYS...ESPECIALLY OVER ERN TWO-THIRDS OF SLIGHT RISK AREA WHERE PW
WILL REMAIN AOA 1.50 INCHES OVER NE KS/ERN NEB. COUPLED WITH
CONTINUING PRESENCE OF DEEP EML...THIS SHOULD YIELD VERY STRONG
INSTABILITY BY MID-LATE AFTN...WITH MLCAPE AOA 3000 J/KG AND SBCAPE
AOA 3500 J/KG OVER N CNTRL KS AND MUCH OF SRN NEB AWAY FROM
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS. MLCAPE ABOVE 2000 J/KG SHOULD EXTEND W INTO PARTS
OF THE NEB PANHANDLE AND NE CO.
WHILE DEEP WLY SHEAR WILL BE COMPARATIVELY MODEST /AROUND 30
KTS/...IT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS GIVEN
DEGREE OF BUOYANCY. THESE WILL BE CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE
HAIL...LOCALLY DMGG WIND...AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES. THE LATTER
THREAT SHOULD BE GREATEST INVOF ENHANCED LOW-LVL MOIST/BACKED FLOW
INVOF MESOSCALE BOUNDARY SEGMENTS...AND IN UPSLOPE REGION OVER NE
CO/SW NEB/NW KS. FARTHER SW...ISOLD LATE DAY TSTMS WITH LARGE HAIL
AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO ARE EXPECTED ALONG LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE
EXTENDING SSW FROM WRN KS INTO W TX/FAR ERN NM.
BY EVE...EXPECT THE NRN KS/SRN NEB STORMS TO MERGE INTO ONE OR TWO
SIZABLE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS. THESE SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP ESE INTO SW IA
AND NRN MO LATER TNGT...WITH EMBEDDED FORWARD-PROPAGATING/POSSIBLE
BOWING SEGMENTS POSING A RISK FOR LOCALLY DMGG WIND AND HAIL THROUGH
EARLY FRI. AN ADDITIONAL AREA OR TWO OF MORE ELEVATED STORMS COULD
ARISE OVER NE NEB THIS EVE AND MOVE/DEVELOP ESE INTO NW AND CNTRL IA
WITH A MORE LIMITED RISK FOR SVR WIND/HAIL.
...CNTRL/NRN NV THIS AFTN/EVE...
WDLY SCTD RELATIVELY HIGH-BASED DIURNAL STORMS WITH A RISK FOR
LOCALLY DMGG WIND AND MARGINALLY SVR HAIL COULD ARISE IN
STRENGTHENING/DEEPENING SSW FLOW DOWNSTREAM FROM CA UPR LOW.
..15_OWS.. 06/04/2015
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