Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
30 %
23,858
1,440,803
Fort Smith, AR...Fayetteville, AR...Springdale, AR...Rogers, AR...Muskogee, OK...
15 %
116,010
9,157,251
Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...Louisville, KY...Springfield, MO...Evansville, IN...
SPC AC 251953
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0253 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015
VALID 252000Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL AND NERN
OK...FAR SE KS...FAR SW MO AND FAR NW AR...
...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF OK...FAR SE
KS...NRN AR AND SRN MO...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
PLAINS...OZARKS...MID MS VALLEY AND OH VALLEY...
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
PLAINS...CNTRL PLAINS...OZARKS...MID MS VALLEY AND OH VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO ARE EXPECTED OVER PARTS
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND OZARKS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...PERHAPS CONTINUING INTO PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY
LATE TONIGHT.
THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE OUTLOOK IS TO WIDEN THE SLIGHT AND MARGINAL
RISK AREAS JUST A BIT OVER SCNTRL MO AND CNTRL AR. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS JUST NORTH OF SPRINGFIELD MO ARE IN THE NRN EDGE OF WW
6. THE CHANGE MAKES SURE THAT THESE AREAS ARE NOW CONTAINED BY THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA. CONCERNING CONVECTIVE TRENDS IN NW TX...REFERENCE
MCD 141.
..BROYLES.. 03/25/2015
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015/
...SYNOPSIS...
WITHIN A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS...A
SHORTWAVE IMPULSE OVER WY/CO WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS KS/OK THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OZARKS/MID-MS VALLEY BY 12Z THURSDAY. TWO
WEAKER UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSES OVER WRN NM AND W TX WILL ALSO MOVE
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS THIS AFTN/EVENING. A SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW
MOVING SWD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SURGE SWD ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS TONIGHT...WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVED THROUGH THE SRN
PLAINS/OZARKS TUESDAY WILL LIFT NORTH TODAY. SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS TODAY WILL RESULT IN UPPER 50S/NEAR 60 DEW
POINTS AS FAR NORTH AS CENTRAL/ERN OK...AR...EWD TO WRN PORTIONS OF
TN/KY.
...SRN PLNS/OZARKS TO LWR OH VLY TODAY/TNGT...
BROAD SURFACE LOW OVER THE TX PANHANDLE WILL BECOME BETTER FOCUSED
BY MID/LATE AFTN ACROSS SWRN/W-CENTRAL OK...WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING EWD FROM THE LOW ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF
MO/IL. A DRY LINE WILL EXTEND SWD FROM THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS WRN
PORTIONS OF N TX. LATER THIS EVENING...THE STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL
OVERTAKE THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND BECOME THE PRIMARY SURFACE
FEATURE.
STG/ISOLD SVR TSTMS WITH A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP NORTH OF THE SFC BOUNDARY OVER S-CENTRAL/SERN KS AIDED BY
LOW-LEVEL WAA. REF MCD 138 FOR THE LATEST SHORT-TERM DETAILS IN THIS
AREA. BY MID-AFTN...STRENGTHENING LOWER-MID TROPOSPHERIC WIND
FIELDS...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR RAPID
SURFACE-BASED SVR TSTM DEVELOPMENT FROM SRN MO/NRN AR WWD TO
NRN/CENTRAL OK. STRONG DIURNAL HEATING AND MODEST LARGE-SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL COMBINE TO REDUCE CINH ACROSS NRN OK EWD TO
SRN MO/AR. INITIALLY DISCRETE SUPERCELL STORMS WILL POSE A LARGE
HAIL/DAMAGING WIND RISK...WITH A TORNADO POSSIBLE. VERY LARGE
HAIL...IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES IN DIAMETER...IS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE. ORIENTATION OF SHEAR VECTORS
RELATIVE TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUGGESTS EVENTUAL EVOLUTION INTO
SHORT BOWING SEGMENTS IS LIKELY WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE DOMINANT
RISK EWD THROUGH THE OH RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT.
ACROSS CENTRAL/SWRN OK...LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE NCEP HRRR ARE
CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING SUPERCELLS NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND ALONG
THE DRYLINE BY MID TO LATE AFTN. THESE STORMS WOULD POSE A RISK FOR
VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE BEING
UNDERCUT BY THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH A TORNADO OR TWO WILL
BE POSSIBLE...LARGE SFC TEMP-DEW POINT SPREADS AND RESULTANT HIGH
LCL HEIGHTS WILL TEND TO MITIGATE POTENTIAL FOR PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL
ROTATION. WITH TIME...STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP A MORE LINEAR STRUCTURE
ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS ERN OK.
FARTHER SOUTH...MORE ISOLD SVR TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS PSBL SWD ALONG
THE DRYLINE INTO PORTIONS OF N TX THROUGH EARLY EVENING WHERE A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL EXIST IN THE PRESENCE OF 40-45 KTS
OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS. LATER TONIGHT...TSTM COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE ALONG
THE COLD FRONT INTO N TX.
...CAROLINAS...
TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG A CONFLUENCE ZONE AND WITHIN A MOIST
/PW AOA ONE INCH/ AIR MASS TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS.
WHILE A WEAKLY ROTATING STORM IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE OVERALL SVR RISK IS LOW AND WILL NOT INTRODUCE
SVR PROBS WITH THIS OUTLOOK.
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