SPC AC 251249

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0749 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

   VALID 251300Z - 261200Z

   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF CNTRL AND NRN
   OK...SW MO...AND NW AR...

   ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK FROM
   SW OK ENE INTO PARTS OF SRN MO AND NRN AR...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE ENH RISK AREA
   FROM PARTS OF N TX NEWD INTO THE LWR OH VLY...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE ABOVE AREAS
   FROM S CNTRL TX NEWD INTO THE MID-OH VLY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE MAINLY OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
   ARE EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND OZARKS LATE THIS
   AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PERHAPS CONTINUING INTO PARTS OF THE LOWER
   OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT.

   ...SYNOPTIC SETUP...
   PATTERN WILL FURTHER AMPLIFY THIS PERIOD AS HEIGHTS FALL OVER THE
   SRN RCKYS...PLNS...AND MS VLY IN RESPONSE TO SHARPENING OF RIDGE
   ALONG THE W CST. IN THE PROCESS...SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW OVER WY/CO
   SHOULD CONTINUE ESE TO WRN KS THIS EVE...AND INTO OK/ERN KS EARLY
   THU...AS HEIGHTS TEMPORARILY REBOUND OVER THE OH VLY IN WAKE OF
   SYSTEM THAT CROSSED THE OZARKS YESTERDAY.  

   COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH WY/CO TROUGH WILL PROGRESS STEADILY SE
   ACROSS THE CNTRL PLNS TODAY...REACHING A SRN TX PANHANDLE TO SRN MO
   LINE BY EARLY EVE. AT THE SAME TIME...DIFFUSE WRN END OF FRONT
   ASSOCIATED WITH THE OH VLY SYSTEM WILL REFORM NWWD TODAY...ALLOWING
   MODIFIED GULF AIR TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF OK AND PARTS OF THE OZARKS.
   THE COLD FRONT SHOULD ACCELERATE SE ACROSS THE SRN PLNS AND OZARKS
   TNGT/EARLY THU AS UPR PATTERN FURTHER AMPLIFIES.  

   ...SRN PLNS/OZARKS TO LWR OH VLY TODAY/TNGT...
   WEAK LEE LOW NOW CENTERED OVER WRN PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE
   SHOULD ELONGATE SLOWLY ENE ACROSS OK AND BECOME A BIT BETTER-DEFINED
   TODAY AS LOW-LVL PRESSURE GRADIENT REGIONALLY TIGHTENS AHEAD OF
   APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CONVERGENCE NEAR AND E OF THE LOW AND COLD
   FRONT AND...TO A LESSER EXTENT...ALONG DRY LINE TRAILING SW FROM THE
   LOW...SHOULD SERVE TO FOCUS STRONG TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTN
   FROM CNTRL OK ENE INTO SE KS/SW MO. WITH TIME...STORMS SHOULD ALSO
   DEVELOP EWD ALONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SRN MO...AND SW
   ALONG DRY LINE INTO N TX. 

   INITIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE DRIVEN LARGELY BY SFC HEATING AND
   LOW-LVL UPLIFT...ALTHOUGH SOME DEGREE OF UPR-LVL FORCING MAY
   ACCOMPANY LOW-AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCE MOVING E ACROSS NM. WARM SECTOR
   MOISTURE WILL REMAIN COMPARATIVELY MODEST...WITH SFC DEWPOINTS
   MAINLY AROUND 60 F AND PW OF 1.00-1.25 INCHES. NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN
   500 MB TEMPS AOB MINUS 16C AND STRONG SFC HEATING...THIS SHOULD
   YIELD 2000+ J/KG SBCAPE. 

   GIVEN THE DEGREE OF BUOYANCY...45-50 KT WSWLY MID-LVL FLOW ATOP 30+
   KT SWLY 850 MB JET WILL BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR STRONG SUPERCELLS
   WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DMGG WIND. WHILE INCREASING DEGREE
   OF LOW- AND MID-LVL FORCING SUGGEST THAT MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY WILL
   FAIRLY QUICKLY EVOLVE INTO CLUSTERS/BROKEN LINES...SOME OPPORTUNITY
   WILL EXIST FOR A FEW LONGER-LIVED DISCRETE STORMS...ESPECIALLY NE OF
   SFC LOW AND NEAR DRY LINE/LOW INTERSECTION.  THESE COULD YIELD A
   COUPLE TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND.  

   AS THE COLD FRONT ACCELERATES SEWD THIS EVE AND OVERNIGHT...EXPECT
   RESULTING SQUALL LINE/QLCS TO BECOME INCREASINGLY UNDERCUT IN THE
   PLNS...WITH A DIMINISHING THOUGH STILL NON-ZERO THREAT FOR LOCALLY
   DMGG WIND AND HAIL SWD INTO PARTS OF TX. A WIND THREAT
   MAY...HOWEVER...CONTINUE LATER INTO THE NGT EWD ACROSS SRN MO AND
   NRN AR INTO THE LWR OH VLY...WHERE STORMS WILL BE LESS LIKELY TO BE
   UNDERCUT...AND A FEW BOWING SEGMENTS MAY EVOLVE. 

   ...ERN CAROLINAS EARLY THU...
   VIS SATELLITE LOOP WITH SCTD DEEP CONVECTION CONFIRMS SATELLITE PW
   DATA DEPICTING A CORRIDOR OF FAIRLY RICH MOISTURE EXTENDING NWD FROM
   OFF THE E CST OF FL TO NEAR CHARLESTON. THIS MOISTURE SHOULD SPREAD
   NWD IN STRENGTHENING/CONFLUENT LOW-LVL FLOW OVER THE CAROLINA CSTL
   PLN NWD TO THE VA BORDER BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. OUTSIDE OF
   CONFLUENCE...FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE WEAK. BUT GIVEN RELATIVELY
   STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES AND 35+ KT WLY DEEP SHEAR...A WEAKLY
   ROTATING STORM OR TWO CANNOT ENTIRELY BE RULED OUT LATE IN THE
   PERIOD OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS.

   ..CORFIDI/ROGERS.. 03/25/2015

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