SPC AC 241252

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0752 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

   VALID 241300Z - 251200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF SW MO AND
   ADJACENT PARTS OF NE OK AND NW AR...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE ENHANCED
   AREA...FROM ERN OK AND FAR ERN KS INTO CNTRL/SRN MO AND WRN/NRN
   AR...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLGT RISK
   AREA...FROM NE TX INTO PARTS OF THE MID MS AND LWR OH VLYS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
   INTO TONIGHT FROM FAR EASTERN KANSAS AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA EASTWARD
   INTO PARTS OF THE OZARKS AND THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO
   VALLEYS.

   ...SYNOPTIC SETUP...
   DOWNSTREAM FROM AMPLIFYING E PAC RIDGE...BROAD...NEGATIVE-TILT
   TROUGH WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY E FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION TO THE
   RCKYS/HI PLNS THIS PERIOD. AS THIS OCCURS...EXPECT LEAD UPR IMPULSE
   NOW OVER CO TO TRACK E INTO WRN MO BY EVE...BEFORE ASSUMING A MORE
   NEGATIVE TILT AS IT CONTINUES ENE INTO IND/LWR MI EARLY WED. AT THE
   SAME TIME...UPSTREAM JET STREAK NOW CROSSING WA/ORE SHOULD AMPLIFY
   SE INTO WRN WY/CO.

   AT THE SFC...LOW NOW OVER NW OK WILL MOVE STEADILY NE THROUGH THE
   PERIOD...REACHING CNTRL MO THIS EVE AND SW MI BY 12Z WED. WHILE
   LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED...ASSOCIATED LOW-LVL PRESSURE
   GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN...ESPECIALLY TNGT AND EARLY WED OVER IL/IND
   AS THE LOW ENCROACHES UPON MORE SLOWLY-MOVING SFC RIDGE CENTERED
   OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. LOW-LVL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NE IN WARM
   SECTOR OF THE LOW...WITH PW INCREASING TO AROUND 1 INCH FROM ERN OK
   INTO THE MO OZARKS. BUT EXISTING DISTRIBUTION OF MOISTURE SUGGESTS
   THAT MOIST AXIS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY NARROW...CONFINED TO BAND
   IMMEDIATELY E OF DRY LINE/TROUGH EXTENDING SW FROM THE LOW.

   ...E CNTRL PLNS TO LWR OH VLY TODAY/TNGT...
   WIND PROFILES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR POTENTIALLY
   STRONG SUPERCELLS LATER TODAY INTO TNGT...ESPECIALLY FROM NE OK/NW
   AR NEWD INTO THE MO OZARKS...WHERE POTENT 60+ KT WLY 500 MB JET
   STREAK OF LEAD UPR IMPULSE WILL OVERSPREAD 40+ KT SSWLY LOW-LVL
   FLOW. AT THE SAME TIME...BROAD/DEEP EML SPREADING E WITH THE UPR
   IMPULSE WILL MAINTAIN NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC MID-LVL LAPSE RATES
   ACROSS REGION. CURRENT SFC...GPS...AND SATELLITE
   DATA...HOWEVER...SUGGEST THAT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED
   THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY IN MO...WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD
   REMAIN AOB 55F.

   DESPITE LIMITED MOISTURE...POTENT COMBINATION OF SFC HEATING WITH
   STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES...STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT IN EXIT REGION
   OF MID-LVL JET...AND LOW-LVL UPLIFT SHOULD SUPPORT RAPID TSTM
   DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTN NEAR SFC LOW IN WRN/CNTRL MO ...SWWD
   ALONG TRAILING SFC TROUGH THROUGH SE KS INTO NE OK. ADDITIONAL
   DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR A BIT LATER THIS EVE SWD ALONG TROUGH TO NEAR
   THE RED RVR.

   ALTHOUGH MOIST AXIS WILL BE RELATIVELY NARROW IN MO...A WINDOW OF
   OPPORTUNITY WILL EXIST FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE
   HAIL...LOCALLY DMGG WIND...AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE TORNADOES. SOMEWHAT
   WIDER MOIST AXIS /WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 50S-LWR 60S F/ AND
   SLOWER STORM MOTIONS COULD OFFSET WEAKER FORCING FOR ASCENT TO YIELD
   SIMILAR SVR THREATS INTO THE NGT SWD ACROSS NW AR AND ERN OK.

   RAPID ENE MOVEMENT OF LEAD UPR IMPULSE WILL OUTPACE LOW-LVL MOISTURE
   RETURN IN THE LWR OH VLY...ESPECIALLY ONCE ANVIL PRECIP FROM MO
   STORMS...AND THAT FROM ANY ELEVATED WAA CONVECTION FARTHER
   E...SPREADS DOWNSHEAR INTO COOL/DRY LOW-LVL AIR NOW PRESENT OVER
   REGION. BUT GIVEN STRENGTH OF UPR IMPULSE...AND TIGHTENING LOW-LVL
   PRESSURE GRADIENT ALREADY MENTIONED...A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR ISOLD
   SVR GUSTS WILL EXIST WITH ANY SFC OR NEAR SFC-BASED STORMS THAT DO
   PERSIST EWD ACROSS IL AND IND.

   ..CORFIDI/ROGERS.. 03/24/2015

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