SPC AC 140729

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0229 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014

   VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN NEB/SERN SD INTO IA
   AND SWRN MN...

   ...SUMMARY...
   THERE IS A CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
   PLAINS AND MID MISSOURI VALLEY ON MONDAY.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DEPART THE UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT
   LAKES REGION DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...WITH SOME INDICATION OF A
   WEAKER IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SWLY FLOW AFFECTING THE NRN
   PLAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON. ALL THIS WILL BE PRECEDING A LARGER UPPER
   TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE NWRN STATES. 

   AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OVER WRN NEB WITH
   SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY BUILDING NWD DUE TO STRONG SLY
   SFC WINDS. AN EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIE ROUGHLY FROM
   SERN SD/NERN NEB INTO IA AND SRN MN BY AFTERNOON...WITH BOUTS OF
   STORMS FOCUSED ON THIS BOUNDARY...MAINLY LATE. A DRYLINE WILL EXTEND
   SWD FROM THE SFC LOW...FROM CNTRL NEB INTO W TX. HEATING AND LIFT
   NEAR THE WARM FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN A SEVERE THREAT FROM NEB INTO
   IA...WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY SWD ALONG THE DRYLINE.

   ...NERN NEB INTO CNTRL IA...SWRN MN AND SERN SD...
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM NE OF THE SURFACE LOW AND NEAR
   THE WARM FRONT ACROSS ERN NEB AND SD BY MID AFTERNOON...WITH
   ACTIVITY BUILDING INTO MN AND IA. MODELS SUGGEST A PROLONGED PERIOD
   OF REDEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA WHERE WARM ADVECTION WILL PERSIST. THE
   GREATEST THREAT SHOULD BE FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING
   WHEN INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED AS WELL AS FORCING FOR ASCENT ON
   THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH HEIGHT
   WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLULAR STORM MODE INITIALLY...WITH LARGE HAIL AND
   A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE BEFORE MERGING INTO AN MCS MOST LIKELY
   AFTER 00Z. HAIL IS LIKELY TO BE VERY LARGE.

   ...WRN KS INTO WRN TX...
   STRONG HEATING WILL LEAD TO AN UNSTABLE AND UNCAPPED AIR MASS ALONG
   THE DRYLINE FROM WRN TX INTO WRN KS. WHILE THERE WILL BE LITTLE
   LARGE SCALE SUPPORT WITH NEUTRAL HEIGHT TENDENCIES ALOFT...ISOLATED
   SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
   THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL VEERING WINDS WITH
   HEIGHT WILL FAVOR SLOW MOVING CELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND
   LOCALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS.

   ..JEWELL.. 06/14/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z