Jun 14, 2014 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook | |||||||||||||||||
Updated: Sat Jun 14 07:30:53 UTC 2014 (![]() ![]() | |||||||||||||||||
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table |
Categorical Graphic | |||||||||||||||||
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Probabilistic Graphic | |||||||||||||||||
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Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point. |
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SPC AC 140729 DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0229 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014 VALID 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN NEB/SERN SD INTO IA AND SWRN MN... ...SUMMARY... THERE IS A CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MID MISSOURI VALLEY ON MONDAY. ...SYNOPSIS... A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DEPART THE UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...WITH SOME INDICATION OF A WEAKER IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SWLY FLOW AFFECTING THE NRN PLAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON. ALL THIS WILL BE PRECEDING A LARGER UPPER TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE NWRN STATES. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OVER WRN NEB WITH SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY BUILDING NWD DUE TO STRONG SLY SFC WINDS. AN EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIE ROUGHLY FROM SERN SD/NERN NEB INTO IA AND SRN MN BY AFTERNOON...WITH BOUTS OF STORMS FOCUSED ON THIS BOUNDARY...MAINLY LATE. A DRYLINE WILL EXTEND SWD FROM THE SFC LOW...FROM CNTRL NEB INTO W TX. HEATING AND LIFT NEAR THE WARM FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN A SEVERE THREAT FROM NEB INTO IA...WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY SWD ALONG THE DRYLINE. ...NERN NEB INTO CNTRL IA...SWRN MN AND SERN SD... THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM NE OF THE SURFACE LOW AND NEAR THE WARM FRONT ACROSS ERN NEB AND SD BY MID AFTERNOON...WITH ACTIVITY BUILDING INTO MN AND IA. MODELS SUGGEST A PROLONGED PERIOD OF REDEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA WHERE WARM ADVECTION WILL PERSIST. THE GREATEST THREAT SHOULD BE FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING WHEN INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED AS WELL AS FORCING FOR ASCENT ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH HEIGHT WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLULAR STORM MODE INITIALLY...WITH LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE BEFORE MERGING INTO AN MCS MOST LIKELY AFTER 00Z. HAIL IS LIKELY TO BE VERY LARGE. ...WRN KS INTO WRN TX... STRONG HEATING WILL LEAD TO AN UNSTABLE AND UNCAPPED AIR MASS ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM WRN TX INTO WRN KS. WHILE THERE WILL BE LITTLE LARGE SCALE SUPPORT WITH NEUTRAL HEIGHT TENDENCIES ALOFT...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT WILL FAVOR SLOW MOVING CELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS. ..JEWELL.. 06/14/2014 CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z |