SPC AC 151732

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1232 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014

   VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF ERN SD/ERN NEB
   EWD ACROSS SRN MN/MUCH OF IOWA INTO SWRN WI...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND
   TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
   AND NEBRASKA EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF IOWA...SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND
   SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
   ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
   PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AT 12Z
   MONDAY WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL
   HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM TEXAS EASTWARD TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. 
   A BELT OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL EXTEND FROM THE GREAT BASIN
   NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES.  

   AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
   CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE A DRYLINE EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE
   CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. 

   ...ERN SD/NEB EASTWARD INTO IA/SRN MN AND SWRN WI...
   LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS RECOVERY FROM RECENT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE
   WELL UNDERWAY AT 12Z MONDAY...WITH MID-UPPER 60S DEW POINTS
   RETURNING TO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL
   LIKELY MOVE EASTWARD IN THE VICINITY OF THE NEB/SD BORDER AS A WARM
   FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM THE LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD. A DRYLINE
   WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO WEST TX. AS AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVES
   NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THE DAY
   PROVIDING LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
   EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE WARM FRONT ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF
   THE SLIGHT RISK AREA AND MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST. IN THE PRESENCE OF
   MODERATE-STRONG SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY AND 40-50 KTS OF
   DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...INITIALLY DISCRETE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE
   SUPERCELLULAR IN NATURE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AN
   ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES. STRONG
   LOW/MID-LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL RESULT IN LOW-LEVEL SRH IN EXCESS OF
   250 M2/S2 IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT...AND THE RISK OF STRONG
   TORNADOES WILL BE GREATEST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
   EVENING HOURS. WITH TIME...UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A SEVERE MCS WILL BE
   POSSIBLE WITH AN INCREASED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS.

   A CATEGORICAL UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK IS POSSIBLE IN SUBSEQUENT
   OUTLOOKS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA AS CONFIDENCE
   INCREASES IN THE LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONT AND THE DETAILS
   REGARDING THUNDERSTORM INITIATION AND EVOLUTION. 

   ...WEST TEXAS...
   STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL SUPPORT
   DAMAGING GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.  OVERALL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
   SPARSE IN THIS AREA.

   ..BUNTING.. 06/15/2014

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z