Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE
152,544
10,261,837
Memphis, TN...St. Louis, MO...Shreveport, LA...Little Rock, AR...Jackson, MS...
45 %
80,885
5,127,519
Memphis, TN...Little Rock, AR...Jackson, TN...North Little Rock, AR...Jonesboro, AR...
30 %
107,741
7,724,405
St. Louis, MO...Shreveport, LA...Jackson, MS...Evansville, IN...Clarksville, TN...
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
99,688
6,429,122
Memphis, TN...Shreveport, LA...Little Rock, AR...Jackson, MS...Jackson, TN...
5 %
165,899
13,331,283
New Orleans, LA...St. Louis, MO...Baton Rouge, LA...Mobile, AL...Metairie, LA...
SPC AC 130600
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT MON OCT 13 2014
VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NRN LA...AR...SE
MO...NW MS...WRN TN...WRN KY AND FAR SRN IL...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
PLAINS...OZARKS...LOWER MS VALLEY...MID MS VALLEY...CNTRL GULF COAST
STATES...TN VALLEY AND OH VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
NUMEROUS STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND
TONIGHT FROM EAST TEXAS THROUGH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY INTO PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...OHIO VALLEY AND GULF
COAST STATES. WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS...SOME TORNADOES AND HAIL
WILL LIKELY OCCUR.
...LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY...
AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS
TODAY AS A 65 TO 80 KT MID-LEVEL JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND MOVES ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND OZARKS. AT THE
SFC...A LOW WILL MOVE NEWD ACROSS MO AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES
QUICKLY EWD ACROSS ERN OK AND EAST TX. A SQUALL-LINE WILL BE ONGOING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD FROM SW MO SWD ACROSS
WRN AR AND EXTENDING SWWD INTO NE TX. THIS SQUALL-LINE WILL MOVE
QUICKLY EWD INTO THE LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY TODAY RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER.
AHEAD OF THE SQUALL-LINE...A WELL-DEVELOPED 50 TO 65 KT LOW-LEVEL
JET WILL HELP REINFORCE A CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDING
NWD ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF AR INTO SERN MO THIS MORNING. SFC
DEWPOINTS ALONG THIS CORRIDOR WILL INCREASE INTO THE MID TO UPPER
60S F ALLOWING MODERATE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF SRN
AND ERN AR THIS MORNING. WARMING SFC TEMPS DURING THE DAY AND
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ENABLE THE SQUALL-LINE TO
GRADUALLY INTENSIFY PRODUCING A WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE THREAT. A
POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS OF GREATER THAN 65 KNOTS WILL EXIST THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LINE MOVES ACROSS THE MODERATE
RISK AREA. TORNADOES MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH ROTATING CELLS EMBEDDED IN
THE LINE. THE GREATEST TORNADO THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS ERN
AR...NW MS AND FAR WRN TN LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS
SFC TEMPS WARM AND THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL JETS BECOME COUPLED AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. ALTHOUGH THE MODERATE RISK
AREA IS DRIVEN BY WIND...A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT WITH SUPERCELLS THAT CAN FORM IN OR AHEAD OF THE LINE.
...LOWER OH VALLEY/SRN GREAT LAKES...
SOUTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY ACROSS THE LOWER OH
VALLEY AND SRN GREAT LAKES REGION AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES NEWD
AWAY FROM THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SFC...WINDS WILL BE
SSELY...HELPING TO REINFORCE A CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
LOCATED FROM THE MID MS VALLEY NNEWD INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES REGION
WHERE INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AROUND MIDDAY. NAM FORECASTS SUGGEST
THAT SBCAPE COULD REACH THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE AS FAR NORTH AS
CNTRL INDIANA. ALTHOUGH A SQUALL-LINE WILL MOVE INTO WRN PARTS OF
THE REGION THIS MORNING...SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP
WELL AHEAD OF THE LINE AS INSTABILITY INCREASES.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT SPRINGFIELD IL AND INDIANAPOLIS AT 18Z SHOW 40
KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 7.0
C/KM. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A WIND DAMAGE THREAT WITH THE STRONGER
MULTICELLS THIS MORNING. AS A SFC LOW MOVES INTO THE MID MS VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON...THE NRN END OF A SQUALL-LINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A WIND DAMAGE
THREAT THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 65 KT
POSSIBLE.
...GULF COAST...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS TODAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES QUICKLY EWD INTO CNTRL AND ERN TX. A SQUALL-LINE
WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS ECNTRL TX AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD WITH THIS FEATURE MOVING EWD INTO LA THIS
AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR BATON ROUGE AT 18Z SHOW SFC
DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 F...MLCAPE NEAR 1500 J/KG AND 45 KT OF 0-6 KM
SHEAR. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A WIND DAMAGE THREAT WITH BOWING LINE
SEGMENTS EMBEDDED IN THE SQUALL-LINE. DUE TO THE INSTABILITY...HAIL
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE PARTS OF THE LINE.
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE STRONGER WITH NWD EXTENT MAKING THE GREATEST
WIND DAMAGE THREAT ACROSS NRN PARTS OF THE REGION FROM CNTRL AND NRN
LA EWD INTO CNTRL MS.
..BROYLES/LEITMAN.. 10/13/2014
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z