SPC AC 061959

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0259 PM CDT FRI JUN 06 2014

   VALID 062000Z - 071200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS ACROSS THE
   MID-SOUTH AND SERN STATES...

   ...SUMMARY...
   DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE ANTICIPATED FROM THE CENTRAL TO
   THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF SEVERE WIND
   GUSTS ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF TORNADOES IS FORECAST OVER PARTS OF THE
   CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS.

   ...ERN HALF OF NM...
   MOIST ELY UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL/ERN NM
   WITH PW VALUES AT OR ABOVE 1 INCH PER OBJECTIVE ANALYSES...SURFACE
   HEATING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE RESULTING IN MODERATE TO VERY
   STRONG INSTABILITY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
   SHOWED A MIDLEVEL IMPULSE MOVING EWD ALONG THE NM/CO BORDER...AND
   ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE/OROGRAPHIC
   ASCENT WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. 
   GIVEN THESE TRENDS AND THE LIKELIHOOD FOR STORMS TO ORGANIZE/BECOME
   SEVERE AS THEY MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...THE SLIGHT RISK ACROSS
   THIS REGION HAS BEEN EXPANDED WWD TO THE SANGRE DE CRISTO AND NRN
   EXTENT OF THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. 

   ...ERN CO AND WRN NEB...
   GIVEN TRENDS IN RADAR IMAGERY AND VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILES
   ACROSS THESE AREAS...THE 5 PERCENT TORNADO PROBABILITY HAS BEEN
   EXPANDED SOME TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS THREAT.

   ...CENTRAL/ERN GA INTO WRN SC...
   GIVEN TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TO NERN
   GA AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS/MESOSCALE DETAILS PROVIDE IN SPC MESOSCALE
   DISCUSSION 860...15 PERCENT SEVERE WIND PROBABILITY/SLIGHT RISK
   CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK HAS BEEN EXPANDED A LITTLE EWD FOR THIS REGION.

   ...PARTS OF ERN OK INTO SWRN AR AND FAR NERN TX...
   AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ATTENDANT TO A LONG-LIVED MCS...NOW MOVING
   THROUGH CENTRAL-ERN AR/MID-SOUTH...EXTENDED SWWD THROUGH SERN AR TO
   NWRN LA...AND THEN WWD THROUGH NORTH TX INTO THE SRN EXTENT OF THE
   TX PANHANDLE.  SURFACE HEATING/DESTABILIZATION IS UNDERWAY ACROSS
   THE SRN PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF THE MCS.  SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH
   HOW FAR EAST A FORECAST MCS WILL REACH EWD BY 12Z SATURDAY ACROSS
   THE SRN PLAINS.  THE SLIGHT RISK AREA ACROSS ERN OK...SWRN AR AND
   ADJACENT FAR NERN TX WILL BE MAINTAINED WITH THIS OUTLOOK
   ISSUANCE...DESPITE THE APPARENT STABILIZATION IN THE WAKE OF THE MCS
   THAT COULD LIMIT A GREATER SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LATE IN THE
   FORECAST PERIOD.

   ..PETERS.. 06/06/2014

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT FRI JUN 06 2014/

   ...AR ESEWD INTO PARTS OF MS AND AL...
   CURRENT MCS OVER ERN OK IS PROGRESSING ESEWD INTO WRN AR AND THIS
   SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD/PROPAGATE TOWARD THE MID-SOUTH THIS
   AFTERNOON.  ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE STORMS ARE FORMING IN ADVANCE OF
   THE MCS OVER AR WITHIN A STRONGLY UNSTABLE /MLCAPE 2500-3000 J PER
   KG/ AND WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT...WITH VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWING CU
   ENHANCEMENT OCCURRING OVER NRN/CENTRAL PARTS OF MS AND AL AS STRONG
   DIABATIC HEATING CONTINUES IN THESE AREAS.

   12Z RAOBS AND CURRENT VAD PROFILES EXHIBIT A BROAD BAND OF 30-40 KT
   WLY/WNWLY MID-LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL PROVIDE
   SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS
   AND ISOLATED STORMS WITH BRIEF TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. 
   GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...STRONGER CELLS WILL
   BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL THROUGH
   THE EVENING HOURS AS ACTIVITY MOVES EWD/ESEWD.  

   ...GA/SRN SC...
   IN THE WAKE OF A MCV MOVING SLOWLY EWD OFF THE SC COAST...STRONG
   DIABATIC HEATING IS OCCURRING WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARMING WELL
   INTO THE 80S.  UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NOW EVIDENT OVER SRN
   TN/NRN AL AND FAR NWRN GA WILL INTENSIFY AS IT DEVELOPS SEWD...WITH
   ADDITIONAL STORMS FORMING OVER ERN GA AND SRN SC BY MID-AFTERNOON. 
   SUFFICIENT CAPE ALONG THE ERN PORTION OF STRONGER NWLY WINDS ALOFT
   WILL PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
   EVENING.

   ...CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...
   IN THE WAKE OF THE ERN OK MCS...STRONG HEATING FROM ERN CO INTO THE
   OK/TX PANHANDLE REGION IS PROMOTING DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THIS
   REGION WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S IN NERN CO TO
   THE LOW 60S IN THE PANHANDLE.  12Z REGIONAL RAOBS EXHIBITED STEEP
   MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH WILL ENHANCE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE OF
   1500-2500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS SEVERAL
   PERTURBATIONS OVER NWRN NM AND NWRN CO EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WLY FLOW
   ALOFT...AND THESE ARE EXPECTED TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS
   AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.  INITIAL STORMS WILL
   EXHIBIT ORGANIZED MULTI-CELL AND OCCASIONAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURE WITH
   THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF
   TORNADOES.  WITH TIME...CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES
   ACTIVITY WILL GROW UPSCALE AS COLD POOLS COALESCE WITH ONE OR MORE
   QLCS SYSTEMS SPREADING EWD TOWARD WRN PARTS OF KS AND OK...WITH THE
   PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT TRANSITIONING TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS  WIND
   DAMAGE.  THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
   HOURS IN RESPONSE TO INTENSIFICATION OF A SLY LOW LEVEL JET OVER
   TX/OK.

   ...SRN SD INTO WRN/CENTRAL NEB...
   ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE
   FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SRN SD ACROSS THE NEB PANHANDLE. 
   STRONG WLY FLOW ALOFT/SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT
   STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WITH THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
   GUSTS.

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