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)| May 7, 2014 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook |
| Updated: Wed May 7 16:11:36 UTC 2014 ( | ) |
| Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table |
| Categorical Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probabilistic Tornado Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
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SPC AC 071608 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1108 AM CDT WED MAY 07 2014 VALID 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM KS INTO TX.... ...SUMMARY... SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FROM PARTS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS THROUGH WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS...AND OVER SOME OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. ...WI/LOWER MI THIS AFTERNOON... HAVE ADDED PORTIONS OF WI AND LOWER MI TO SLIGHT RISK AREA...WHERE STORMS HAVE FORMED AND ARE PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN HOW FAR EAST THESE STORMS WILL MAINTAIN SEVERE INTENSITY...BUT IT APPEARS POSSIBLE THAT THE RISK OF LARGE HAIL COULD EXTEND INTO WESTERN LOWER MI. PLEASE REFER TO MESOSCALE DISCUSSION NUMBER 507 FOR FURTHER DETAIL. ...NEB/CO... LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A SURFACE LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL KS...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO CO. NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE TRANSPORTING SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST AIR INTO NORTHEAST CO AND THE NEB PANHANDLE...WHERE DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50S ARE NOTED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON SUGGEST THE PRESENCE OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ONLY A WEAK CAP...WITH MODELS SHOWING CONVECTIVE INITIATION AROUND 21Z. STORMS SHOULD FORM FIRST ALONG THE FOOTHILLS OF NORTH CENTRAL CO...AND ALONG A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN NEB. SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT THROUGH THE EVENING. ...KS/OK/TX... A SURFACE DRYLINE SHOULD BECOME WELL-DEFINED THIS AFTERNOON FROM CENTRAL KS...ACROSS WESTERN OK...INTO WEST TX. FULL SUNSHINE WILL HELP TO DEEPEN BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND WEAKEN THE CAP BY LATE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN AZ WILL ROTATE NORTHEASTWARD AND BEGIN AFFECTING THE AREA. INCREASED LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE DRYLINE BETWEEN 21-00Z. MODEL SOLUTIONS STRONGLY SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SPLITTING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE PRESENT BEFORE NOCTURNAL COOLING DECOUPLES THE BOUNDARY LAYER AFTER DARK. ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY POSE A RISK OF HAIL OVERNIGHT ACROSS THIS AREA. ...MN/WI... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY AS LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND LIFT INCREASE. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF LARGE HAIL IN THE STRONGER STORMS. ..HART/MOSIER.. 05/07/2014 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z |