May 7, 2014 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed May 7 06:02:35 UTC 2014 (20140507 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140507 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140507 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20140507 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20140507 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20140507 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 316,386 12,245,114 Oklahoma City, OK...Minneapolis, MN...Wichita, KS...St. Paul, MN...Sioux Falls, SD...
   SPC AC 070559

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1259 AM CDT WED MAY 07 2014

   VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NERN CO AND SERN WY NEWD
   INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY FROM SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO MUCH
   OF WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL LIKELY. SEVERE STORMS ARE
   ALSO LIKELY ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AND FAR NORTHEASTERN COLORADO
   DURING THE DAY WITH HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT...A
   HAIL THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD INTO MINNESOTA AND
   WISCONSIN.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EWD INTO THE PLAINS LATE
   WED WITH LEADING MID-TO-UPPER-LEVEL SPEED MAX EXTENDING FROM ERN NM
   INTO SWRN KS BY 00Z. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OVER
   ERN CO AND JUST S OF A DEVELOPING FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE WY/CO
   BORDER NEWD INTO SRN MN AT 00Z. TO THE S...A DRYLINE WILL EXTEND
   ROUGHLY FROM SLN TO CHK TO SJT BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND WILL BACK
   NWWD DURING THE EVENING. BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S F
   WILL SPREAD NWD ACROSS TX AND OK...RESULTING IN A LARGE AREA OF
   INSTABILITY. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG
   AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARIES WILL RESULT IN MULTIPLE AREAS OF SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT LARGE HAIL. 

   ...MUCH OF WEST-CENTRAL TX...WRN OK...S CNTRL KS...
   STRONG HEATING...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION...INCREASING SHEAR
   PROFILES AND CONVERGENCE NEAR THE DRYLINE WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED
   SUPERCELLS FROM WRN OK SWWD ACROSS TX TO THE RIO GRANDE BY LATE
   AFTERNOON. INITIALLY...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL WITH THE
   RESULT BEING LONG HODOGRAPHS AND SPLITTING CELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE
   HAIL. SOME HAIL COULD BE VERY LARGE. AFTER 00Z...THE DRYLINE WILL
   BACK NWWD...AND ALTHOUGH SOME BOUNDARY-LAYER COOLING WILL
   OCCUR...CONTINUED HEIGHT FALLS WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND A
   STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET COULD YIELD NOCTURNAL SUPERCELL
   POTENTIAL FROM WRN TX INTO WRN OK.

   ...FAR NERN CO AND SERN WY...MUCH OF WRN NEB...S CNTRL SD...
   HEATING S OF THE FRONT COMBINED WITH COOLING ALOFT WILL YIELD VERY
   STEEP LAPSE RATES THROUGH A DEEP LAYER. POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW IS
   LIKELY TO INITIATE SEVERE STORMS OVER SERN WY AND NERN CO BY EARLY
   AFTERNOON...CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND A TORNADO OR TWO. OTHER
   ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP EWD INTO WRN NEB ALONG THE FRONT WHERE
   HODOGRAPHS WILL BE ESPECIALLY LONG...FAVORING HAIL...WIND...AND
   PERHAPS A TORNADO WHERE LCLS ARE SUFFICIENTLY LOW.

   ...MN INTO WI OVERNIGHT...
   CAPPING AND RIDGING ALOFT WILL INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
   THROUGH ABOUT 03Z UNTIL LIFT INCREASES ALONG THE WARM FRONT COURTESY
   OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. ALTHOUGH THE NAM IS TOO UNSTABLE DUE TO
   ERRONEOUSLY HIGH DEWPOINTS...STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND FAVORABLE
   SHEAR WILL STILL YIELD LARGE-HAIL POTENTIAL DURING THE EVENING.

   ..JEWELL/SMITH.. 05/07/2014

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